Jennifer L. Doleac

Houston

Economist. EVP of Criminal Justice, @Arnold_Ventures. Host, @ProbCausation. Author of The Science of Second Chances, coming in 2026 from Holt. Opinions my own.

Articles

Episode 116: Crystal Yang — Probable Causation

5 days ago | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:“Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and William J. Jackson. “Improvement in quality of hospital care during accreditation: A nationwide stepped-wedge study" by Søren Bie Bogh, Anne Mette Falstie-Jensen, Erik Hollnagel, René Holst, Jeffrey Braithwaite, and Søren Paaske Johnsen. “Evaluating Accreditation” by Charles D. Shaw.
Episode 115: Steve Mello — Probable Causation

1 month ago | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

In this episode, we discuss Prof. Mello’s research on the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello.
Episode 114: Rachel Nesbit — Probable Causation

2 months ago | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:“Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and Gerald McDougall. “Mental Health Treatment and Criminal Justice Outcomes” by Richard G. Frank and Thomas G. McGuire. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K.
Episode 113: Peter Hull — Probable Causation

2 months ago | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

In this episode, we discuss Prof. Hull’s research on a jail-based education program called IGNITE:“'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang.
Episode 112: Abi Adams — Probable Causation

Feb 11, 2025 | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

In this episode, we discuss Prof. Adams’ research on the effects of economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence:“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
What Republicans and Democrats Get Wrong About Crime

Dec 7, 2024 | nytimes.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

Americans are understandably concerned about crime. Before the 2024 election, voters consistently ranked it among their top priorities. At least two states rolled back reforms this year, and prison populations in many states are starting to rise again after nearly a decade of declines. Unfortunately, the politics of crime has become both predictable and partisan. Worse, it is largely disconnected from evidence about what works and what does not.
Episode 110: Aurélie Ouss — Probable Causation

Nov 19, 2024 | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. "The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. "Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. "Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann.
Episode 109: Anjali Adukia — Probable Causation

Oct 22, 2024 | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth. “Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger. “School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik.
Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts

Oct 9, 2024 | econofact.org | Tara Watson |Mark Shepard |Jennifer L. Doleac |Jennifer Hunt

· Brookings Institution Click here for a larger version of this graph. Deportations have long been a part of immigration enforcement and their number has fluctuated significantly in the last few decades. Former President Trump has promised to take this further and significantly ramp up the policy with a mass deportation of people who do not have the legal authority to be in the country.
Episode 108: Emma Rackstraw — Probable Causation

Jul 30, 2024 | probablecausation.com | Jennifer L. Doleac

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn "‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss. “The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan. "How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta.