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Dec 3, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Stan Veuger |Tara Watson
Editor's note: This is an update to an October 2024 analysis, which is archived here. Few issues dominated the 2024 presidential contest like immigration. In this analysis, we consider likely paths for net migration during president-elect Trump’s second term and their macroeconomic implications. The starting point for our analysis is the creation of a “high immigration” and a “low immigration” scenario.
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Dec 1, 2024 | 
inquirer.com | Jeff Gammage |Tara Watson
For 20 years Blanca Pacheco has fought for immigrants in Philadelphia, becoming painfully familiar with federal operations to deport men, women, and children. Sometimes a father disappears from the community, arrested by ICE. Other times it’s a mother with kids. Now President-elect Donald Trump intends to dwarf anything that has come before, pledging an unprecedented removal of millions of undocumented people across the United States, beginning on his first day in office.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
aei.org | Stan Veuger |Wendy Edelberg |Tara Watson |Zichu Yang
In a few days, voters will decide between two presidential candidates with starkly different visions for immigration policy. In a recent report, we estimate that differences in immigration policy alone will cause GDP growth in 2025 to be roughly half a percentage point or $130 billion lower in a second Trump presidency than under a Harris presidency. That difference is significant given that forecasters are expecting the economy to grow by two percent next year.
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Oct 16, 2024 | 
aei.org | Stan Veuger |Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Tara Watson
Few issues have dominated the political debate in recent years like immigration. The two candidates for president, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. In this analysis, we consider possible paths for net migration under these agendas and their likely macroeconomic implications.
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Oct 16, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Stan Veuger |Tara Watson
Few issues have dominated the political debate in recent years like immigration. The two candidates for president, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. In this analysis, we consider possible paths for net migration under these agendas and their likely macroeconomic implications.
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Oct 9, 2024 | 
econofact.org | Tara Watson |Mark Shepard |Jennifer L. Doleac |Jennifer Hunt
· Brookings Institution
Click here for a larger version of this graph.
Deportations have long been a part of immigration enforcement and their number has fluctuated significantly in the last few decades. Former President Trump has promised to take this further and significantly ramp up the policy with a mass deportation of people who do not have the legal authority to be in the country.
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Oct 6, 2024 | 
econofact.org | Tara Watson
Most of the United States’ population growth is now due to immigration. Among these is an estimated 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants have been deported both through enforcement at the border and by being removed from within the United States. Recently, former President Trump has called for mass deportation of millions of people. How realistic is this goal?
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Sep 15, 2024 | 
angrybearblog.com | Tara Watson |Bill Haskell
by Tara Watson Williams College"Relative to the late Bush and early Obama eras, the Trump administration removed a modest number of immigrants from the nation's interior." One would not think such was true. Apparently and as in other instances, the numbers say differently. Keep in mind this report is from 2021. It does give detail on the differences between Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
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Aug 13, 2024 | 
hamiltonproject.org | Wendy Edelberg |Tara Watson
We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data.
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Jun 6, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Wendy Edelberg |Olivia Howard |Tara Watson
Immigration estimates for 2023 notably surpassed prior projections, as we explain in a recent analysis. This piece explores what we know about where recent U.S. immigrants live, though data limitations mean the picture is necessarily incomplete. We specifically focus on one sub-population of interest: non-dependent immigrants arriving in the last two calendar years without a college degree.
