Jeremy Goldman

2 weeks ago | goldmine.substack.com | Jeremy Goldman

The advertising industry has always been my economic canary in the coal mine. When brands start pulling back on spending, it's rarely just about marketing budgets - it's often the first visible tremor before a more significant economic shake-up. And right now, that canary is looking decidedly unwell. Thanks for reading The Goldmine! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. The numbers don't lie.

2 weeks ago | emarketer.com | Jeremy Goldman

The news: President Donald Trump reversed course just hours after sweeping tariffs on nearly 60 countries went into effect. For now, most trading partners will face a flat 10% “reciprocal tariff” for 90 days. China remains the outlier, with tariffs rising to 125%. The market responded with euphoria: the S&P 500 surged 7%, its best day since 2009.

3 weeks ago | emarketer.com | Jeremy Goldman

The news: The Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs on imports from nearly 185 countries promises to reshape trade with Latin America, hitting markets across the region with uneven penalties. Whilenations such as Brazil, Argentina, and Chile received the baseline 10% tariff, others—like Guyana (38%), Nicaragua (18%), and Venezuela (15%)—were hit harder. Mexico and Canada were excluded from this round but still face existing tariffs on key sectors, including a 25% duty on vehicle imports.

3 weeks ago | emarketer.com | Jeremy Goldman

The news: President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs are harsher than anticipated, exceeding EMARKETER’s base-case scenario and signaling a major disruption to global trade. Early assessments from our forecasting team indicate that the likelihood of a US recession is rising well above the previous 20–30% range, driven by weakened consumer confidence, stalled investment, and potential retaliation from global trade partners.

3 weeks ago | emarketer.com | Jeremy Goldman

The news: As President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on all imports—upending expectations across industries and prompting widespread unease among marketers—advertising growth projections for 2025 are being cut back sharply. Our revised estimate now puts US ad spend growth at 6.3%, down from 7.5% in November. Madison & Wall lowered its forecast to just 3.6%, while Magna and WARC each trimmed their global and domestic outlooks.