Joe Janzen

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Articles

Corn Exports: Rocket Ship to Where?

Nov 12, 2024 | m.farms.com | Joe Janzen

By Joe JanzenUS corn export sales have been extremely strong in the past month. Weekly sales exceeded 2 million metric tons or roughly 79 million bushels in each of four weekly USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Export Sales reports to the week ending October 31. On 15 of the 23 business days in October, USDA FAS announced sales activities for corn that exceeded the reporting threshold of 100,000 metric tons (3.9 million bushels) to a single destination country in a day.
Corn Exports: Rocket Ship to Where?

Nov 12, 2024 | agriculture.com | Joe Janzen

U.S. corn export sales have been extremely strong in the past month. Weekly sales exceeded 2 million metric tons or roughly 79 million bushels in each of four weekly USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Export Sales reports to the week ending October 31. On 15 of the 23 business days in October, USDA FAS announced sales activities for corn that exceeded the reporting threshold of 100,000 metric tons (3.9 million bushels) to a single destination country in a day.
A breath of optimism for corn in a down market

Oct 8, 2024 | agriculture.com | Joe Janzen

The long-run and short-run narratives in the corn market have diverged. New-crop December corn futures prices rallied about $0.45 per bushel, or nearly 12%, in the last six weeks to approximately $4.25 per bushel. The price rose even as the calendar rolled into the heart of harvest season in the US Corn Belt. Increasing prices are atypical at this time of year. The mean and median price change between late August and early October is a 2% price decline.
Post-Harvest Grain Marketing in a Low-Price Environment

Sep 9, 2024 | farmdocdaily.illinois.edu | Hongxia Jiao |Joe Janzen

In the summer of 2024, two big price changes occurred in corn and soybean markets. First, price levels declined, beginning in June and continuing to the present. Figure 1 shows new-crop corn and soybean futures for delivery during the upcoming fall harvest period (the December 2024 corn and November 2024 soybean contracts) both fell by about 20% between the last week of May and late August.
Sizing Up Potential Downside Risk for New-Crop Corn and Soybean Prices

May 14, 2024 | m.farms.com | Joe Janzen

By Joe JanzenThis article reviews the latest US corn and soybean production and use forecasts from USDA which include projections for the new-crop 2024/25 marketing year. These supply and demand estimates set expectations for forthcoming market conditions and provide context for marketing decisions made by farmers, merchants, processors, and end-users. In general, corn and soybean markets have coalesced around prices slightly above long-run average nominal levels (See: farmdoc daily May 31, 2022).
Can 'lost' crop acres be found as season progresses?

Apr 6, 2024 | farmweeknow.com | Joe Janzen

The highly anticipated prospective plantings report, released March 28 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, showed lower than anticipated acres of many major crops, especially corn. Markets reacted positively to the news, especially corn where the new-crop December 2024 futures prices rose about 15 cents per bushel following the report’s release.
Can ‘Lost’ Crop Acres Be Found?

Apr 1, 2024 | farmdocdaily.illinois.edu | Hongxia Jiao |Joe Janzen

The highly anticipated Prospective Plantings report, released Thursday, March 29 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, showed lower than anticipated crop acres. Acreage of all crops is estimated to be 6.3 million acres lower than in 2023. Corn and soybean acres were each one million acres below USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum estimates from February, though soybean acres were in line with analysts’ pre-report expectations.
Sizing up potential downside risk for new-crop corn and soybean prices

Feb 23, 2024 | agriculture.com | Joe Janzen

By Joe Janzen, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of IllinoisThis article reviews the latest US corn and soybean production and use forecasts from USDA which include projections for the new-crop 2024/25 marketing year. These supply and demand estimates set expectations for forthcoming market conditions and provide context for marketing decisions made by farmers, merchants, processors, and end-users.
Post-Harvest Grain Marketing: How Important Is It?

Dec 8, 2023 | farmdocdaily.illinois.edu | Hongxia Jiao |Joe Janzen

After harvest, grain marketing changes. Farmers have taken stock of their crop and know precisely how many bushels they must sell. For these remaining bushels, the question is: sell or store? Selling promptly reduces storage costs but prices at harvest time are typically discounted relative to prices later in the marketing year. Forward markets offer higher prices later (what is known as carry) to incentivize storage and ration available supply until the next harvest.
Ad Hoc Government Payments Caused Farmers to Store More Grain, By Joe Janzen

Jul 19, 2023 | cropproducer.com | Joe Janzen |Jim Eadie

In recently published research, we estimated the impact of the unprecedented surge in ad hoc farm payments from 2018 to 2020 on grain inventories held by US farmers. Under the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), US farmers received approximately 23 billion dollars during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 marketing years.