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2 weeks ago | 
forex.com | David Song |Matt Weller CFA
US CPI KEY TAKEAWAYS: US CPI expectations: 2.5% y/y headline inflation, 2.9% y/y core inflation After falling to 2.3% last month, base effects are likely to increase the year-over-year inflation readings in each of the next two months. The April low around 98.00 in the US Dollar Index is the most important support level to watch, whereas the nearest clear level of topside resistance comes from the descending bearish trend line closer to 99.50. When is the US CPI report?
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | David Song |Matt Simpson |David Scutt |Matt Weller CFA
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CADUSD/CAD drops towards the monthly low (1.3829) as the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, and the exchange rate stage further attempts to test the to test the November low (1.3821) as struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | Matt Weller CFA |Matt Simpson |David Song |David Scutt
Canadian Dollar and Bank of Canada Key Points Canadian CPI came in well below expectations this morning at 2.3% y/y in March. The data slightly favors a BOC hold this week in my view, though a proactive 25bps rate cut cannot be ruled out. There is some early evidence that USD/CAD may be carving out a near-term bottom heading into tomorrow’s BOC meeting.
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | David Song |David Scutt |Matt Weller CFA |James Stanley
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CADUSD/CAD extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week to register a fresh yearly low (1.3829), and the exchange rate may face increased volatility ahead of Canada’s federal election should the Bank of Canada (BoC) adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy.
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | Matt Weller CFA |Razan Hilal |Fawad Razaqzada |David Song
US CPI KEY TAKEAWAYS: US CPI expectations: 2.8% y/y headline inflation, 3.1% y/y core inflation FOMC officials continue to downplay the immediate impact of a potential trade war on the US economy, preferring to emphasize the backward-looking data as a key policy driver, keeping the focus on CPI. As long as the US Dollar Index remains below 103.20 the path of least resistance will remain to the downside, with little in the way of major support until the 2024 lows near 100.25.
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | Fawad Razaqzada |Fiona Cincotta |Matt Weller CFA |David Song
The US dollar was on the back foot in the first half of Wednesday’s session as the trade war enters a critical phase. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs day finally arrives later on, with risk sentiment remaining fragile following a bruising few weeks for global markets, especially Wall Street. With the exact scope of these measures still uncertain, you can understand why investors are cautious, reluctant to take on greater exposure to riskier assets just yet.
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2 months ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |David Song |Matt Simpson |Matt Weller CFA
It was a strong start to Q1 for USD/CAD but the final two months of the year were pullbacks, with wide underside wicks on both February and March monthly candles. The broader bull pennant remains in-play, but of late, sellers have seemed to take a stronger role in the pair’s price action. On an even longer-term basis, the multi-year range remains of interest for USD/CAD but for that to fill-in, we’ll likely need to see bears take a step forward in Q2, at some point. Explained further below.
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Mar 4, 2025 | 
cityindex.com | David Song |Matt Simpson |Matt Weller CFA
Australia Dollar Outlook: AUD/USDAUD/USD may consolidate over the coming days as it bounces back from a fresh weekly low (0.6187), but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the rebound from the February low (0.6088) as it no longer trades within an ascending channel.
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Mar 3, 2025 | 
cityindex.com | David Song |Fiona Cincotta |David Scutt |Matt Weller CFA
British Pound Outlook: GBP/USDGBP/USD clears the February high (1.2716) to register a fresh yearly high (1.2754), and the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the December high (1.2812) as it continues to trade within an ascending channel. GBP/USD seems to be unfazed by the shift in US trade policy as it extends the advance from the start of the week, and the rally in the exchange rate may persist as it carves a series of higher highs and low.
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Mar 3, 2025 | 
forex.com | David Song |James Stanley |Matt Weller CFA |Matt Simpson
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CADUSD/CAD stages a seven-day rally as US President Donald Trump states that the 25% tariffs for Canada will go into effect on March 4, with the reciprocal tariffs scheduled for April 2. USD/CAD may further retrace the decline from the February high (1.4793) as the transition in US trade policy puts pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to pursue an accommodative stance, and the central bank may overshoot the neutral rate amid the rising threat of a trade war.
