Michael Kofman

Washington, D.C., United States

Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.

Articles

Will Russia's War on Ukraine Keep Resisting Trump's Diplomacy?

1 month ago | warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Dara Massicot |Ryan Evans

Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to unpack how the Trump administration’s ambitious peace efforts have collided with reality. They dive into how strategic calculations, politics, military conditions, and societal developments have shaped diplomacy, assessing how various pressures and intentions could redefine — or derail — pathways toward ending the war. Image: Russian state media
Can the U.S.-Ukrainian Rift Be Healed?

Mar 6, 2025 | warontherocks.com | Constanze Stelzenmüller |Melinda Haring |Justin Logan |Michael Kofman

Last week, a meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House exploded into acrimony in front of the cameras. Since then, an era-defining drama has been unfolding across the West as Europe prepares for a world where it might not be backed by U.S. military power. U.S. military aid and at least some intelligence support for Ukraine have also been suspended. What happened? And what happens next?
Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine

Mar 3, 2025 | warontherocks.com | Jack Watling |Michael Kofman

Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and afterwards, is a responsibility that Europe will have to shoulder sooner rather than later. Washington may now cut support for Ukraine well before any agreement is reached and try to compel Ukraine to accept an unstable ceasefire. This will leave Ukraine in a perpetual state of insecurity, and Europe bracing for a possible renewal of the war.
The Puzzling Diplomacy over Ukraine's Future

Feb 28, 2025 | warontherocks.com | Ryan Evans |Liana Fix |Michael Kofman |Justin Logan

Nothing about the war in Ukraine is simple — including the diplomacy, which might be even messier than the battlefield. Michael Kofman, Justin Logan (Cato), and Liana Fix (the Council on Foreign Relations) joined Ryan to help him understand the negotiations underway about Ukraine’s fate. From the minerals deal to Zelensky’s approach to Trump to the prospects for a European peacekeeping force, they cover it all, and have a few friendly arguments along the way. Image: Ukrainian Presidency
The Uncertainty Surrounding Russia’s War in Ukraine, Three Years In

Feb 20, 2025 | carnegieendowment.org | Eric Ciaramella |Michael Kofman |Aaron Miller |Alexandra Prokopenko

On this week’s episode of Carnegie Connects, Aaron David Miller spoke with Carnegie experts Eric Ciaramella, Michael Kofman, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Andrew Weiss on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They discussed battlefield conditions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s domestic challenges, the Russian economy, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Assessing Ukraine's Prospects in 2025

Jan 27, 2025 | warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Ryan Evans

Mike Kofman joined Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation on the challenges faced by both Ukraine and Russia this year. They discuss losses on both sides, manpower challenges, the importance of following the discourse in Ukraine, the Russian economy, and whether the Russian pace of operations will clearly slow down. This episode is brought to you by Bedrock Knowledge. Image: Army Inform
Putin’s Point of No Return

Dec 18, 2024 | foreignaffairs.com | Michael Froman |Andrea Kendall-Taylor |Michael Kofman |Mara E. Karlin

On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk region—the biggest foreign incursion into Russian territory since World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response was telling. Days after Ukraine’s offensive, Putin railed against the United States and Europe. “The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians,” he said, reiterating his view that Russia’s war in Ukraine is in fact a proxy battle with the West.
Waiting for a Theory of Victory in Ukraine

Dec 4, 2024 | warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Ryan Evans

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine’s mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration’s curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn’t involve NATO directly.
Technology, the Battlefield, and Beyond in Ukraine

Nov 27, 2024 | warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Rob Lee

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine.
As Ukraine Stumbles and Russia Advances, What Does it Mean?

Nov 12, 2024 | warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Ryan Evans

Mike Kofman came by WOTR HQ to discuss the state of the front and findings from his most recent research trip to Ukraine. From North Korean troops, to manpower woes, to Donald Trump coming back to the Oval Office, what does it all add up to for Ukraine? Image: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense