Nathaniel Rakich
Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: [email protected]
Articles
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1 month ago |
baseballot.substack.com | Nathaniel Rakich
Back in 2012—when it was still in its New York Times era—FiveThirtyEight had a feature called Reads and Reactions. Essentially, Micah Cohen—who was one of just two FiveThirtyEight employees at the time, along with a guy named Nate Silver—rounded up some good pieces of data journalism from around the internet (the “reads”) and other articles engaging with what Nate had written that week (the “reactions”).
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1 month ago |
abcnews.go.com | Nathaniel Rakich
It's an unpredictable year, but other award shows give us a clue. This year's Oscars are tough to predict. ABC News, Adobe538 has forecasted a lot of elections in its day, from the worlds of politics to sports to entertainment. But without a doubt, the Oscars are the most fun (probably because they're also the lowest-stakes).
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2 months ago |
abcnews.go.com | Monica Potts |Nathaniel Rakich
Plus, polling on U.S. expansion, the Russia-Ukraine war and approval of Trump. ByMonica Potts and Nathaniel RakichFebruary 19, 2025, 1:23 PMWelcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls. Andrew Harnik/Getty, Chip Somodevilla/Getty, AdobeWelcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column.
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2 months ago |
abcnews.go.com | Nathaniel Rakich |Tia Yang |Monica Potts |G. Elliott Morris
Economists agree they would raise prices, and Americans agree that would be bad. ByNathaniel Rakich, Tia Yang, Monica Potts, and G. Elliott MorrisFebruary 13, 2025, 5:33 PMWelcome to 538's latest politics chat. Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
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2 months ago |
abcnews.go.com | Nathaniel Rakich
It's unclear how many violent criminals are among those ICE has arrested. The Trump administration has pushed to increase deportationsABC News, Jason Redmond/AFP, GettyOne of President Donald Trump's chief priorities — to conduct the "largest deportation program of criminals in the history of America" — is well underway. According to both media reports and official data, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has been increasing the number of arrests of people allegedly in the country illegally.
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Canada's Conservatives had a dominant polling lead for almost 2 years. This is, in a word, bonkers.
🚨338 Tuesday (!) Update: The Liberals Pull Ahead 📊This is not a drill—new federal polling suggests the Liberals enter the campaign as favourites ↓ https://t.co/hdVsLOSNZZ
RT @jamesd0wns: From last night: @maryfrancesmcg and I explore the Granite State's effort to move its Sept primary to earlier in the summer…
Agreed. In fact, not having a unified pitch/image is *beneficial* in a midterm! Each candidate can run his or her own race.
Re Dems having a bad image Ds don't have to have a unified pitch/image figured out by 2026 to have a solid midterm. That's a 28 thing. They just need Trump to be unpopular