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Jan 24, 2025 | 
ridl.io | Eric Woods |Anton Barbashin |Vladislav Inozemtsev |Pavel Luzin
Vladimir Putin has turned experimental weapons into a key part of Russia’s deterrence and propaganda strategy, but the gap between rhetoric and reality reveals systemic challenges in engineering, scientific collaboration, and strategic credibility. Putin loves his weapons, and he loves even more talking about the latest developments in high profile televised events.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik
Russia is struggling to increase arms production against a tide of permanently growing costs and a shortage of human and financial resources. Without a ceasefire, the Kremlin will face deeper imbalances in its domestic political economy and become strategically weaker. 2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Kseniya Kirillova
There are clear signs that Russia’s 2024 military budget exceeded the planned 10.4 trillion rubles ($101 billion) and was actually closer to 13.2 trillion rubles ($129 billion.) This number comes from Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov, who said in December that defense spending was 32.5% of the total federal budget of 40.6 trillion rubles at the year’s end.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Kseniya Kirillova
The death and disablement of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, acute strains in the defense budget and a looming shortage of military hardware make 2025 the year of truth for Moscow’s armed forces. With the full-scale war against Ukraine nearly three years-old, Russia’s armed forces have lost as many as 700,000 troops killed, injured or missing in action by October last year.
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Jan 16, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Catherine Sendak |Ilya Timtchenko |Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus
Europe’s security hinges on Ukraine’s stability. NATO membership for Ukraine is the only long-term security guarantee and should be the ultimate goal. However, Ukraine cannot wait for NATO; this report provides a comprehensive road map with concrete recommendations for what Ukraine’s allies and partners must do in the interim to secure Ukraine, between now and NATO membership.
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Nov 21, 2024 | 
jamestown.org | Pavel Luzin
Executive Summary:Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine for the first time on November 21, targeting the city of Dnipro and Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russian territory. Russia’s strike against Ukraine, coinciding with updates to its nuclear doctrine, reflects Moscow’s desperation to regain psychological leverage amid diminishing nuclear deterrence credibility.
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Nov 18, 2024 | 
ridl.io | Anton Barbashin |Vladislav Inozemtsev |Pavel Luzin
Just two months before the end of his presidential term, Joe Biden greenlit Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS missiles for striking deep into Russian territory. The range of these missiles is about 300 km. It is highly likely that Washington will closely monitor how Kyiv will use these missiles; ATACMS will most likely be used only in the Kursk Oblast, part of which is under Ukrainian control, and where the Russian army is conducting a counteroffensive involving troops from North Korea.
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Nov 15, 2024 | 
jamestown.org | Pavel Luzin
Executive Summary:Russia remains committed to its long-term strategic goals as it continues its war in Ukraine, including undermining US global influence, fracturing Trans-Atlantic unity, and aligning with authoritarian regimes, such as Iran and North Korea. Russia’s reliance on outdated stockpiles and unconventional resupply shows vulnerability, but its determination to sustain the war in Ukraine demands continued Western aid to Ukraine and strikes on Russian military infrastructure.
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Nov 7, 2024 | 
fletcherforum.org | Pavel Luzin
By Pavel LuzinRussia-India Arms Cooperation since February 2022Russia has a long history of supplying arms to India through both technology transfer and standard arms sales. From licensed manufacturing of Su-30MKI fighter jets, aircraft engines, and T-90 battle tanks, to BrahMos and BrahMos-2 missiles, Russia’s arms sales are vast and diverse. But despite the fact that India is the main buyer of Russian weapons, the Russian-Indian partnership is in decline.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
jamestown.org | Pavel Luzin
Executive Summary:The Russian industrial output index comparing January–September 2024 to January–September 2023 is 104.4 percent, demonstrating economic growth when considering the data in rubles. The inflation of the ruble makes it seem as if the Russian military-industrial complex is growing. However, when considering these numbers by volume, there appears to be no significant growth since last year.
