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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Kseniya Kirillova |James Thomson |Volodymyr Dubovyk |Mitzi Perdue
A group of exiled Russian economists argued late last year that the Russian economy can sustain the war in Ukraine. The three men said in a report that the conflict’s consequences and sanctions, such as high inflation, will be evident in the future but pose no immediate threat to Putin’s regime. That is far from a universally accepted view. Numbers unearthed by former Morgan Stanley and Bank of America financier Craig Kennedy make much less pleasant reading for the Kremlin.
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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Mykyta Vorobiov |Elina Beketova |Kseniya Kirillova |Aliide Naylor
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians of reproductive age have been killed and wounded on the frontline, and thousands, including children, have been deported from the occupied territories. The birth rate has fallen due to the uncertainties of wartime, and the death rate is growing. In 2024, Ukraine became the country with the lowest birth rate and the highest death rate in the world.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Kseniya Kirillova
There are clear signs that Russia’s 2024 military budget exceeded the planned 10.4 trillion rubles ($101 billion) and was actually closer to 13.2 trillion rubles ($129 billion.) This number comes from Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov, who said in December that defense spending was 32.5% of the total federal budget of 40.6 trillion rubles at the year’s end.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Pavel Luzin |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Kseniya Kirillova
The death and disablement of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, acute strains in the defense budget and a looming shortage of military hardware make 2025 the year of truth for Moscow’s armed forces. With the full-scale war against Ukraine nearly three years-old, Russia’s armed forces have lost as many as 700,000 troops killed, injured or missing in action by October last year.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Kseniya Kirillova |Edward Lucas
The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) — a 13-nation geopolitical grouping to integrate Central and Eastern Europe — has gathered much brand value but also much dust since it first met in 2016. Now, with the EU’s Polish presidency for the next six months, Donald Trump’s return to the White House, and the end of the Russian gas transit via Ukraine, it has the opportunity to find new dynamism.
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Jan 22, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Kseniya Kirillova |Aura Sabadus |Wojciech Jakóbik |Edward Lucas
The 2025 budget, which sets a new post-Soviet record for military spending, shows the Russian economy has effectively transitioned to a war footing. The Kremlin plans for 40% of expenditure for defense and security, much more than for education, health, and social spending combined. The results of this spending shift are becoming more obvious, and the costs are high. Inflation is rocketing, and even pro-Kremlin news sources have been unable to deny what their readers and viewers see every day.
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Dec 10, 2024 | 
firstpost.com | Kseniya Kirillova
Behind Putin's nuclear bluster lies a desire for peaceWhatsappFacebookTwitterWhile Vladimir Putin tries to demonstrate to the entire world his willingness to start a nuclear war, even recognised “hawks” among pro-Kremlin analysts do not conceal the fact that they hope for peaceread moreIt seems that neither the Kremlin nor analysts close to it believe in the real possibility of a new world war, although they use it actively in propaganda.
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Dec 4, 2024 | 
stopfake.org | Kseniya Kirillova
As developments on and off the battlefield appear to favor Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s mouthpieces are talking revealingly about the prospect of a Russian victory, and what would come next. By Kseniya Kirillova, for CEPAThe news has been bleak for Kyiv. North Korean troops have reinforced Putin’s armies and political changes in the Western alliance point to possible declines in support.
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Nov 25, 2024 | 
cepa.org | Edward Lucas |Andrei Soldatov |Irina Borogan |Kseniya Kirillova
While Europe dozes, Russia is waging war. Not just in Ukraine, but in the comfortable countries to its west. These “gray zone” attacks target infrastructure and computer databases, military facilities and commercial premises, fugitives, and critics. The immediate effects are cost and disruption. Arteries for data and energy flows—cables and pipelines—are cut. Humdrum features of daily life such as air freight for parcels become complicated: suppose another hired thug tries to post a bomb.
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Nov 20, 2024 | 
cepa.org | Francis Harris |Walter C. Clemens |Kseniya Kirillova |Maciej Bukowski
Oleksandr is 24 and has one leg. When the Russians assaulted his frontline position, he was wounded by a one-way drone. Tying a tourniquet around his right thigh, he fought on for two hours. It took even longer to get him to a medical facility. “By the time I got to the doctors, I knew I was going to lose my leg,” he said. “It was just too late.
