R. Quentin Grafton

Jun 22, 2024 | nature.com | Tom Kompas |Tuong Nhu Che |R. Quentin Grafton

In contrast to most integrated assessment models, with limited transparency on damage functions and recursive temporal dynamics, we use a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW, to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The GTAP-DynW model uses GTAP production and trade data for 141 countries and regions, with varying water and heat stress baselines, and results are aggregated into 30 countries/regions and 30 commodity sectors. Blue water stress projections are drawn from WRI source material and a GTAP-Water database to incorporate dynamic changes in water resources and their availability in agricultural production and international trade, thus providing a more general measure for severe food insecurity from water and heat stress damages with global warming. Findings are presented for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs) and project: (a) substantial declines, as measured by GCal, in global food production of some 6%, 10%, and 14% to 2050 and (b) the number of additional people with severe food insecurity by 2050, correspondingly, increases by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.

Nov 16, 2023 | journals.sagepub.com | Long Chu |R. Quentin Grafton |Tom Kompas |Mary-louise McLaws

Highlights•Temporal trend analysis, independent of statistical or structural assumptions, was used to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 public health outcomes from closures and their relaxation in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom over 2020 to 2021. •Closures, in general, were effective at reducing trend growth of COVID-19 infections in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom over 2020 to 2021.