Sam FM

Apr 12, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Sam FM

This is a rambling post about the repugnant conclusion, mass-manufacturing, metis and woo, and the fragility of expert discernment — through the lens of my experiences playing, repairing, and selling violins. (And eating discount sushi.)Epistemic status: Discussing utilitarianism-related issues that I'm poorly educated on.

Mar 1, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Neel Nanda |Jalex Stark |Feeping Creature |Sam FM

~ A Parable of Forecasting Under Model Uncertainty ~You, the monarch, need to know when the rainy season will begin, in order to properly time the planting of the crops. You have two advisors, Pronto and Eternidad, who you trust exactly equally. You ask them both: "When will the next heavy rain occur?"Pronto says, "Three weeks from today."Eternidad says, "Ten years from today.""Good," you say.