Thomas Tully

1 month ago | biorxiv.org | Thomas Tully |Masoumeh Shayanmehr |Elham Yoosefi Lafooraki |Mehdi Ghajar Sepanlou

AbstractBackground. The Hyrcanian Forests of Iran, a unique 850 km stretch of deciduous forest along the southern coast of the Caspian Sea, are renowned for their exceptional biodiversity, high levels of endemism and ecological integrity. The northern part of this forest massif is part of the Caucasian Biodiversity Hotspot, while its southern fringe extends into the Iranian-Anatolian Hotspot.

Nov 11, 2024 | biorxiv.org | Thomas Tully |Souleyman Bakker |Romain Peronnet

AbstractPredicting the fate of small populations is essential in ecology, epidemiology and conservation biology. Small populations can go extinct quickly or can develop into large established populations. These can still go extinct through demographic stochasticity, especially when declines in mean population size or large size fluctuations drive them into an extinction vortex.

Aug 26, 2024 | biorxiv.org | Thomas Tully |iEES Paris |Patsy Haccou |Gerard Hermus

AbstractPopulation management requires predictions of extinction risk based on a general understanding of these risks and on system-specific modelling. Life tables, available for numerous populations and species, permit calculating population growth and the construction of multi-type branching process models which predict population survivorship and ultimate extinction probabilities.