
Tom McClellan
Technical Analyst and Editor at McClellan Financial Publications
Technical Analyst - Editor of The McClellan Market Report. Trying to figure out stock market physics, and to leave my campsite cleaner than how I found it.
Articles
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2 days ago |
mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan
The FOMC in June elected not to cut its interest rate target, even though inflation data are coming in lower than feared. Their claim is that they don't know what the inflationary effects of tariffs are going to be. We already have the lowest annual CPI inflation rate since Covid. That’s the good news, but whether it is good enough to convince the Fed to cut at the July 29-30 meeting is a different question.
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1 week ago |
proactiveadvisormagazine.com | Tom McClellan
Elon Musk’s recent feud with President Trump received a lot of media attention. As one of the salvos in this feud, Musk posted on X, “The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year.”I agree with the forecast, although not necessarily with the cause he cited. If a recession was going to happen anyway, and tariffs merely make it worse, then did the tariffs cause the recession? That is a rhetorical question for which there can be no satisfactory answer.
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3 weeks ago |
mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan
Elon Musk is famously having a feud with President Trump this week, which is getting a lot of media attention. As one of the salvos in this feud, Musk posted on X that, "The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year." I agree with the forecast, although not necessarily the causation he sites. If a recession was going to happen anyway, and if tariffs make it worse, then did the tariffs "cause" the recession?
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4 weeks ago |
mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan
Crude oil prices peaked on January 15, 2025, just before the inauguration of President Trump, when expectations were running high for strong economic growth. The economy has not turned out that way thus far, and oil prices have fallen to multiyear lows. One effect of that has been that the large "backwardation" in crude oil futures in January has now receded.
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1 month ago |
mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan
The University of Michigan has been conducting its survey of consumer sentiment since 1955. They made big news last week when they announced that the preliminary reading for the month of May 2025 (reflecting only partial readings for the month) was at 50.8. That is one of the lowest readings in the survey’s history, and it reflects the uncertainty that the consumers are feeling in the first months of President Trump’s term, especially with all of the tariff battles.
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What's up with the shelf/ledge formed in the plot by those in late 40s to early 50s? I'm guessing peak alcoholism leading to more drunk driving arrests, but that's just a wild guess.

26 year olds are arrested more often in Pittsburgh than any other age group. https://t.co/W3g4trKiC2 https://t.co/53ST203IDO

Not as much as falling inflation does. (Chart not up to date). https://t.co/vbUFFWnhZf

An aging population gets you lower murder rates too.

RT @ChrisMartzWX: Climate alarmists tell us that U.S. wildfire seasons are worse than ever. 🔥 But, here's what they don't tell you: • Fir…