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Tom McClellan

Lakewood

Technical Analyst and Editor at McClellan Financial Publications

Technical Analyst - Editor of The McClellan Market Report. Trying to figure out stock market physics, and to leave my campsite cleaner than how I found it.

Articles

  • 1 week ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

    President Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is attempting to find wasteful spending and other problems throughout the federal government. We are not yet 3 full months into the current presidential term, so it is hard to know exactly what successes they may be having. But there are already some signs of lowered spending. Every month, the Treasury Department publishes its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), detailing broad monthly numbers on tax receipts and federal spending.

  • 3 weeks ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

    The latest data from Investors Intelligence on their bull-bear spread show a dead heat. Both numbers are at 28.8%, meaning that the numbers of investment advisors and newsletter writers in their survey are exactly equal. But interestingly, both numbers are also very small, which has importance for this week's chart. The advisors in their survey which Investors Intelligence cannot categorize as either bullish or bearish get put into a 3rd category which they call "correction".

  • 1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

    Starting right after the November 2024 elections, the SP500 was doing better than average. I wrote here back on Dec. 5, 2024 about the differences in stock market behavior between having an incumbent party president (or replacement) winning versus a new challenger. Usually the victory of a new challenger candidate means he gets to serve in what is counted as his first term.

  • 1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

    Lots of people who trade or invest in the stock market like to look at the VIX Index, and there are hundreds of ways to analyze it with Bollinger Bands, moving averages, standard deviation, and other methods of slicing and dicing its messages. This week's chart shows a way to compare the spot VIX Index to the pricing of the VIX futures contracts. The VIX Index is based on the pricing of SP500 Index options.

  • 1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

    The total numbers of issues traded on both the NYSE and Nasdaq peaked with the stock market's peak at the end of 2021, and these numbers fell all during the bear market of 2022. But then even though stock prices started turning up again in late 2022, the total numbers of stocks traded have continued to fall. There are interesting reasons for that, which I will get to below. But I should also note that in late 2024 we started seeing a brief swoop upward in Nasdaq issues traded.

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Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
10 Apr 25

RT @Glen_Ring: Something to also have in mind if you use historical data when testing. Could your proposed system actually have been filled…

Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
10 Apr 25

I got a few replies from people who were not aware that the stock market used to trade on Saturdays, so it is probably worth some elaboration. Saturday trading continued all the way until 1952, although periodically the NYSE suspended it before finally canceling it then. Having

Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc

Did you try 1929 as a precedent? Here is that comparison. One big problem is that there were 6 trading days per week then, so doing a comparison of trading day plots means that the total time duration is not quite the same. https://t.co/hqsYGWN5tP

Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
9 Apr 25

Everyone's job provides some stress. But imagine you are working this week writing code for the software that customs agents use to calculate tariff payments for inbound shipments, and you have to keep the values up to date.