McClellan Financial Publications

The McClellan Market Report, along with its Daily Edition, is created by Sherman McClellan and Tom McClellan. These two are skilled technical analysts and educators who have provided valuable insights that have supported many investors in achieving success. Their research and analysis have been frequently referenced in Barron's, and their market timing predictions have earned them a spot among the top ten timers for both intermediate and long-term periods, as recognized by Timer Digest.

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First Effects of DOGE Spending Cuts

1 week ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

President Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is attempting to find wasteful spending and other problems throughout the federal government. We are not yet 3 full months into the current presidential term, so it is hard to know exactly what successes they may be having. But there are already some signs of lowered spending. Every month, the Treasury Department publishes its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), detailing broad monthly numbers on tax receipts and federal spending.
Investors Intelligence "Correction" Percentage

3 weeks ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The latest data from Investors Intelligence on their bull-bear spread show a dead heat. Both numbers are at 28.8%, meaning that the numbers of investment advisors and newsletter writers in their survey are exactly equal. But interestingly, both numbers are also very small, which has importance for this week's chart. The advisors in their survey which Investors Intelligence cannot categorize as either bullish or bearish get put into a 3rd category which they call "correction".
Deviation From The Presidential Cycle Patterns

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Starting right after the November 2024 elections, the SP500 was doing better than average. I wrote here back on Dec. 5, 2024 about the differences in stock market behavior between having an incumbent party president (or replacement) winning versus a new challenger. Usually the victory of a new challenger candidate means he gets to serve in what is counted as his first term.
VIX Futures Spread as an Indicator

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Lots of people who trade or invest in the stock market like to look at the VIX Index, and there are hundreds of ways to analyze it with Bollinger Bands, moving averages, standard deviation, and other methods of slicing and dicing its messages. This week's chart shows a way to compare the spot VIX Index to the pricing of the VIX futures contracts. The VIX Index is based on the pricing of SP500 Index options.
Total Issues Traded Are Declining

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The total numbers of issues traded on both the NYSE and Nasdaq peaked with the stock market's peak at the end of 2021, and these numbers fell all during the bear market of 2022. But then even though stock prices started turning up again in late 2022, the total numbers of stocks traded have continued to fall. There are interesting reasons for that, which I will get to below. But I should also note that in late 2024 we started seeing a brief swoop upward in Nasdaq issues traded.
NDX Stocks' Average Drawdown Increasing

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Most people think of "market breadth" as looking at Advances minus Declines. But there are lots of ways to portray the behavior of a large group of stocks. This week's chart looks at a rather unique one I created several years ago. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) made a new all-time closing high on Feb. 19, 2025. And before that had happened, there was already a new high in QQEW, the equal-weighted ETF tracking the stocks in the NDX.
Rising New Lows In The Nasdaq

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

There are certain relationships which work "normally" most of the time, and when they are working that way it is not very remarkable. But when the normal relationship breaks down and starts acting differently, that gets our attention. This week's chart shows us that the numbers of Nasdaq stocks making 52-week New Lows has been ramping up higher recently. That is not the normal thing to see while prices are continuing to push to higher highs.
NYSE A-D Line Divergence

Jan 23, 2025 | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The SP500 on Jan. 23, 2025 was able to climb up to a new all-time closing high. But it is not yet dragging along the rest of the market, and this may indicate a problem. This week's chart shows a bearish divergence evident in the NYSE's cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line. The divergence is that the SP500 is making a higher high, but the NYSE A-D Line is not yet confirming. The A-D Line is a cumulative running total of the daily difference between advancing and declining issues.
Big Spike in Bitcoin Open Interest

Jan 9, 2025 | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Bitcoin is the modern era's #1 speculative trading asset. But the public mood waxes and wanes concerning enthusiasm toward Bitcoin, just like any other type of speculative vehicle. There is nothing like seeing Bitcoin prices zooming up to new all time highs to get everyone excited, and that excitement shows up in traders deciding to play in the Bitcoin futures market.
Sunspots: A Driver of Unemployment

Nov 21, 2024 | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The elections are now over and decided, and thankfully we don't have any "dimpled chad" problems like in 2000, so the new administration can get to work implementing its agenda. The members of that new administration probably do not know that rising unemployment rates are going to be a bigger challenge in 2025. This expectation comes from this week's chart, which shows an exotic relationship I have discussed here before.