McClellan Financial Publications

The McClellan Market Report, along with its Daily Edition, is created by Sherman McClellan and Tom McClellan. These two are skilled technical analysts and educators who have provided valuable insights that have supported many investors in achieving success. Their research and analysis have been frequently referenced in Barron's, and their market timing predictions have earned them a spot among the top ten timers for both intermediate and long-term periods, as recognized by Timer Digest.

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Inflation's 5.31-Year Cycle Is Bottoming

1 day ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The FOMC in June elected not to cut its interest rate target, even though inflation data are coming in lower than feared. Their claim is that they don't know what the inflationary effects of tariffs are going to be. We already have the lowest annual CPI inflation rate since Covid. That’s the good news, but whether it is good enough to convince the Fed to cut at the July 29-30 meeting is a different question.
Yield Curve's Predicted Recession Is Arriving

3 weeks ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Elon Musk is famously having a feud with President Trump this week, which is getting a lot of media attention. As one of the salvos in this feud, Musk posted on X that, "The Trump tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of this year." I agree with the forecast, although not necessarily the causation he sites. If a recession was going to happen anyway, and if tariffs make it worse, then did the tariffs "cause" the recession?
Crude Oil Backwardation Almost to Zero

4 weeks ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Crude oil prices peaked on January 15, 2025, just before the inauguration of President Trump, when expectations were running high for strong economic growth. The economy has not turned out that way thus far, and oil prices have fallen to multiyear lows. One effect of that has been that the large "backwardation" in crude oil futures in January has now receded.
Gold and Consumer Sentiment Extremes

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The University of Michigan has been conducting its survey of consumer sentiment since 1955. They made big news last week when they announced that the preliminary reading for the month of May 2025 (reflecting only partial readings for the month) was at 50.8. That is one of the lowest readings in the survey’s history, and it reflects the uncertainty that the consumers are feeling in the first months of President Trump’s term, especially with all of the tariff battles.
Put/Call Ratio Shows Bullish Sentiment Rebound

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

At the bottom of the "Liberation Day" Trump Tariff Crash, sentiment was very bearish with a lot of options traders favoring put options versus calls. That sent the 5-day simple moving average of the daily Put/Call Volume Ratio to its highest reading since August 2024, which was when a rate hike by the Bank of Japan scared everyone by disrupting the "yen carry trade".
New Lows Spike Was Unusual This Time

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The price low on April 8, 2025 was unusual because it coincided with the highest reading for stocks making a new 52-week low on the NYSE. Usually the number of New Lows peaks before the final price low. One point that is important to understand about the data for New Highs and New Lows is that the calculations employ intraday extremes.
What It Takes to Get The McClellan Oscillator to Zero

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

By now I hope that all of my readers are already familiar with the McClellan A-D Oscillator, the famous indicator that my parents Sherman and Marian McClellan created in 1969. I want to talk in this article about a derivative indicator related to the Oscillator. This week's chart shows a plot of the daily value for Advances minus Declines (A-D) that would be needed to take the Oscillator exactly to zero.
Nasdaq Summation Index

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

When we talk about the McClellan Summation Index, we are usually referring to the version of it calculated on NYSE Advance-Decline (A-D) data. But it can be calculated on any type of breadth data. Whether such an alternative is useful is a separate question. This week's chart looks at the Ratio-Adjusted McClellan A-D Summation Index for the Nasdaq. It is noteworthy right now because it has gotten down to a very low level, below -1000, and turned up.
First Effects of DOGE Spending Cuts

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

President Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is attempting to find wasteful spending and other problems throughout the federal government. We are not yet 3 full months into the current presidential term, so it is hard to know exactly what successes they may be having. But there are already some signs of lowered spending. Every month, the Treasury Department publishes its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), detailing broad monthly numbers on tax receipts and federal spending.
Investors Intelligence "Correction" Percentage

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The latest data from Investors Intelligence on their bull-bear spread show a dead heat. Both numbers are at 28.8%, meaning that the numbers of investment advisors and newsletter writers in their survey are exactly equal. But interestingly, both numbers are also very small, which has importance for this week's chart. The advisors in their survey which Investors Intelligence cannot categorize as either bullish or bearish get put into a 3rd category which they call "correction".