McClellan Financial Publications

The McClellan Market Report, along with its Daily Edition, is created by Sherman McClellan and Tom McClellan. These two are skilled technical analysts and educators who have provided valuable insights that have supported many investors in achieving success. Their research and analysis have been frequently referenced in Barron's, and their market timing predictions have earned them a spot among the top ten timers for both intermediate and long-term periods, as recognized by Timer Digest.

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Crude Oil Backwardation Almost to Zero

1 week ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Crude oil prices peaked on January 15, 2025, just before the inauguration of President Trump, when expectations were running high for strong economic growth. The economy has not turned out that way thus far, and oil prices have fallen to multiyear lows. One effect of that has been that the large "backwardation" in crude oil futures in January has now receded.
Gold and Consumer Sentiment Extremes

2 weeks ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The University of Michigan has been conducting its survey of consumer sentiment since 1955. They made big news last week when they announced that the preliminary reading for the month of May 2025 (reflecting only partial readings for the month) was at 50.8. That is one of the lowest readings in the survey’s history, and it reflects the uncertainty that the consumers are feeling in the first months of President Trump’s term, especially with all of the tariff battles.
Put/Call Ratio Shows Bullish Sentiment Rebound

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

At the bottom of the "Liberation Day" Trump Tariff Crash, sentiment was very bearish with a lot of options traders favoring put options versus calls. That sent the 5-day simple moving average of the daily Put/Call Volume Ratio to its highest reading since August 2024, which was when a rate hike by the Bank of Japan scared everyone by disrupting the "yen carry trade".
New Lows Spike Was Unusual This Time

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The price low on April 8, 2025 was unusual because it coincided with the highest reading for stocks making a new 52-week low on the NYSE. Usually the number of New Lows peaks before the final price low. One point that is important to understand about the data for New Highs and New Lows is that the calculations employ intraday extremes.
What It Takes to Get The McClellan Oscillator to Zero

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

By now I hope that all of my readers are already familiar with the McClellan A-D Oscillator, the famous indicator that my parents Sherman and Marian McClellan created in 1969. I want to talk in this article about a derivative indicator related to the Oscillator. This week's chart shows a plot of the daily value for Advances minus Declines (A-D) that would be needed to take the Oscillator exactly to zero.
Nasdaq Summation Index

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

When we talk about the McClellan Summation Index, we are usually referring to the version of it calculated on NYSE Advance-Decline (A-D) data. But it can be calculated on any type of breadth data. Whether such an alternative is useful is a separate question. This week's chart looks at the Ratio-Adjusted McClellan A-D Summation Index for the Nasdaq. It is noteworthy right now because it has gotten down to a very low level, below -1000, and turned up.
First Effects of DOGE Spending Cuts

1 month ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

President Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is attempting to find wasteful spending and other problems throughout the federal government. We are not yet 3 full months into the current presidential term, so it is hard to know exactly what successes they may be having. But there are already some signs of lowered spending. Every month, the Treasury Department publishes its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), detailing broad monthly numbers on tax receipts and federal spending.
Investors Intelligence "Correction" Percentage

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

The latest data from Investors Intelligence on their bull-bear spread show a dead heat. Both numbers are at 28.8%, meaning that the numbers of investment advisors and newsletter writers in their survey are exactly equal. But interestingly, both numbers are also very small, which has importance for this week's chart. The advisors in their survey which Investors Intelligence cannot categorize as either bullish or bearish get put into a 3rd category which they call "correction".
Deviation From The Presidential Cycle Patterns

2 months ago | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Starting right after the November 2024 elections, the SP500 was doing better than average. I wrote here back on Dec. 5, 2024 about the differences in stock market behavior between having an incumbent party president (or replacement) winning versus a new challenger. Usually the victory of a new challenger candidate means he gets to serve in what is counted as his first term.
VIX Futures Spread as an Indicator

Mar 6, 2025 | mcoscillator.com | Tom McClellan

Lots of people who trade or invest in the stock market like to look at the VIX Index, and there are hundreds of ways to analyze it with Bollinger Bands, moving averages, standard deviation, and other methods of slicing and dicing its messages. This week's chart shows a way to compare the spot VIX Index to the pricing of the VIX futures contracts. The VIX Index is based on the pricing of SP500 Index options.