Zohan Hasan

Nov 29, 2023 | rand.org | Zohan Hasan

Key Findings The causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns. CENTCOM will likely play a supporting role to interagency partners in reducing the risk of climate-related conflict. Military-led operations, activities, and investments provide some niche tools to interrupt the progression along those causal pathways and could decrease the severity of conflicts by improving U.S. and partner response capabilities.

Nov 29, 2023 | rand.org | Calvo Hernandez |Zohan Hasan |Emily Allendorf |Nathan Chandler

Research BriefKey Findings Nearly the entire U.S. Central Command(CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) facesthe compounding effects of accelerating hightemperatures, drought, and long-term dryness. Causal pathways from climate events toarmed conflict are multistep processesin which climate hazards compoundgovernance and socioeconomic grievances. According to modeling by RAND Corporationresearchers, the CENTCOM AOR will experiencesubstantial conflict in the coming half century.