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Unpacking Tariff Uncertainty, the Budget Bill, and a Debt Downgrade

3 weeks ago | econofact.org | Binyamin Appelbaum |Larry Edelman |Scott Horsley |Heather Long

EconoFact Chats regularly hosts a panel discussion with top economic journalists. Since the panel last met in March, the House passed the ‘big, beautiful budget bill,’ Moody’s has downgraded U.S. debt, universities face stiff funding challenges, and tariff policy continues to be volatile.
Does International Trade Hurt the United States?

2 months ago | econofact.org | Michael Klein

· Fletcher School, Tufts University President Trump and members of his administration claim that international trade is rife with unfair dealing. As a sign of this unfairness they point to the fact that the U.S. buys more goods from many countries than these individual countries purchase from the United States, arguing that such bilateral trade deficits mean that the United States is being “ripped off”.
Treasury Bonds, Safe Havens, and Financial Stress

2 months ago | econofact.org | Jeremy Stein |Econo Fact |Binyamin Appelbaum |Scott Horsley |Greg Ip

United States Treasury bonds have long been viewed as a highly liquid investment with very little risk of default. They have served as a safe haven for investors and also provided a benchmark interest rate for mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, and other bonds. Typically, Treasury bond yields fall at times of financial stress as demand for Treasury securities rise. But this time is different. Bond prices have fallen and yields have risen in the wake of the policy volatility of the past month.
Looking Ahead to the 2025 Economy

2 months ago | econofact.org | Mark Zandi

President Trump inherited an economy that was, at least in the aggregate, performing exceptionally well. Since taking office, however, the stock market has fallen, and there are heightened expectations of a slowdown due to the policies, and uncertainty from the shifts in policies, of the new Administration. Are these concerns well-founded? Or will tariffs, cuts to government jobs, and deregulation help usher in a stronger economy? Mark Zandi considers these issues on EconoFact Chats.
The 10-Year Treasury Rate: Why Is It Important and What Can Policy Do About It?

Mar 27, 2025 | econofact.org | Kenneth N. Kuttner |Michael Klein |Melissa S. Kearney

· Williams College Few financial indicators are as closely watched as the interest rate on 10-year Treasury securities. So much so, in fact, that Treasury Secretary Bessent stated in a February 2025 interview that “The president wants lower rates. He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” What is the 10-year Treasury yield? What role does it play in the economy? What determines it? And what (if anything) can the Treasury do to affect it?
Why Has the Price of Gold Risen So Sharply?

Mar 17, 2025 | econofact.org | Michael Klein |Felipe Goncalves |Elisa Jácome

· EconoFact and The Fletcher School, Tufts University The price of gold has jumped over 40 percent since the end of 2023, reaching $3,000 per ounce in mid-March 2025. This leap cannot be explained by a sudden increase in the demand for gold as jewelry or for its use in industrial production. Rather, it reflects the shifting demand for the yellow metal as a financial asset.
Tariffs, Immigration, and DOGE: Assessing the Policies of Trump 2.0 | Econofact

Mar 16, 2025 | econofact.org | Binyamin Appelbaum |Scott Horsley |Greg Ip |Heather Long

Labeled by The Economist as ‘the envy of the world,’ in October 2024, the US economy today is marked by growing fears of a recession amid aggressive tariffs, threats of tariffs, deregulation, and drastic employment cuts across the federal government. Despite the short-term pain, could the Trump administration’s policies make the US economy stronger and more productive over the long run? Or is lasting turbulence, lower productivity and economic stagnation a more likely outcome?
Fact Check: Would GDP be more accurate if it removed government spending?

Mar 14, 2025 | econofact.org | Gabriel DeLuca Vinocur |Michael Klein |Nora Gordon |Jennifer Hunt

Gross domestic product is most accurate when it accounts for all of a country’s economic output, including that facilitated by government spending. GDP measures the dollar value of all the goods and services produced in a country and consumed by end users in a given period of time. Government spending funds a significant amount of the economy’s production, including national defense, infrastructure, education, health care, policing, and firefighting.
Fact Check: Do a majority of Americans have less than $1,000 saved?

Mar 11, 2025 | econofact.org | Keshav Srikant |Michael Klein |Nora Gordon |Jennifer Hunt

A Bankrate survey about Americans’ willingness to use their savings for an emergency expense did not show that a majority of Americans have less than $1,000 saved. Instead, it found that about 40% of Americans would use their savings for an unexpected $1,000 emergency expense. The rest said they’d use a credit card (25%), reduce other spending (13%), borrow from family or friends (13%), take out a loan (5%), or something else (4%).
Fact Check: Does congestion pricing help decrease traffic?

Mar 5, 2025 | econofact.org | Timothy Valk |Michael Klein |Nora Gordon |Jennifer Hunt

Existing congestion pricing schemes have generally shown to be effective in improving traffic flows, incentivizing commuters to car pool or take public transit to avoid charges. Singapore was the first major urban area to operate a comprehensive congestion charging program. Car trips into central Singapore came down 10-15% in the two years after introduction of their 1988 Electronic Road Pricing scheme, charging for the use of main throughways.