Peterson Institute for International Economics

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), formerly known as the Institute for International Economics (IIE), is a prominent American think tank located in Washington, D.C. Established by C. Fred Bergsten in 1981, it is now headed by Adam S. Posen. The institute focuses on research, offers policy advice, and publishes various books and articles covering a broad range of subjects related to the U.S. economy and global economic issues. In the 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania, PIIE ranked 20th out of 150 in the "Top Think Tanks Worldwide" category and 13th out of 60 in the "Top Think Tanks in the United States."

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Convergence? Thoughts about the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics over the last 40 years

1 week ago | piie.com | Olivier Blanchard

This year marks the 40th anniversary of the NBER Macro Annual Conference, founded in 1986. This paper reviews the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics since then. It presents Blanchard’s views, informed by a survey of a number of researchers who have made important contributions to the field. He develops two main arguments. The first is that, starting from strikingly different positions, there has been substantial convergence, in terms of methodology, architecture, and main mechanisms.
Trump's tariffs also threaten US innovation

4 weeks ago | piie.com | J. Jensen |Scott J. Wallsten

President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have shocked bond and stock markets, clouded economic forecasts, and sent analysts scrambling to explain the impact on prices and supply chains. Yet the effects of tariffs on innovation have received far less attention. Because innovation drives productivity, and productivity drives economic growth, the effects on innovation are significant. Tariffs fracture the global economy, effectively shrinking markets.
Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US | PIIE

1 month ago | piie.com

The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with less than a university education.
PIIE experts react to Trump’s tariffs announced April 2 | PIIE

1 month ago | piie.com

President Donald Trump rolled out a new Executive Order Wednesday imposing tariffs of 10 percent or higher on all US trading partners. Here is a sample of PIIE experts’ initial reactions, lightly edited for space and clarity.
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart | PIIE

1 month ago | piie.com
The macroeconomic impact of new US international policies

1 month ago | piie.com | Olivier Blanchard |Adam Posen |Lawrence Summers

Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers, two of the world's most insightful policy macroeconomists, hold a deep discussion of the US and global implications of the Trump administration's economic strategy. They assess how these new measures will reshape the global landscape with potentially lasting effects on the role of the dollar, inflation, monetary policy, financial stability, and long-term growth trends. PIIE president Adam S. Posen moderates a discussion and Q&A session that follows.
Modeling a US-EU trade war: Tariffs won't improve US global trade balance | PIIE

1 month ago | piie.com

America could narrow its merchandise trade deficit with EU countries by imposing tariffs on them, but at a cost of higher inflation and lower GDP than otherwise for the US and nearly all the other EU economies. The measures, however, would have little impact on the global US trade deficit, according to our new analysis.
Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would cost the typical US household over $1,200 a year | PIIE

Feb 6, 2025 | piie.com
Are the trade wars with Canada and Mexico authorized? | PIIE

Feb 4, 2025 | piie.com

Ever since the Ancient Greeks recited their stories of epic tragedy, humankind has contemplated events going beyond the control of those that set them in motion. Historians still argue about why World War I occurred, whether it was necessary. Once mobilization for war took place, the outcome became unavoidable.
US tariffs on Canada and Mexico would hurt all three economies; retaliation would worsen the damage | PIIE

Feb 4, 2025 | piie.com

On February 1, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced he would impose 25 percent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico (except imports of Canadian energy, which faces a lower 10 percent tariff) and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China. He had been threatening to do so since November. His initial justification was the need to stop fentanyl and unauthorized immigrants from entering the US.