Informed Comment

1 week ago | juancole.com | Juan Cole

A revised version of an essay from a long time ago. It didn’t need much revision. Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the USReality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war in modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of “no first strike.” This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

1 week ago | juancole.com | Juan Cole

By Kian Sharifi( RFE/ RL ) – Deep beneath the mountains near the city of Qom lies one of Iran’s most heavily guarded nuclear sites: the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Designed to survive even the most powerful air strikes, Fordow has become a focal point in Israel’s escalating concerns over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But why is this site so difficult to target — and why would Israel need US help to even attempt it?

1 week ago | juancole.com | Juan Cole

By Christian Emery, UCL(The Conversation) – The US president, Donald Trump, is weighing up whether to join Israel in attacking Iran. The fact he is even contemplating such a move is, in my opinion, a direct consequence of his 2018 decision to tear up the agreement negotiated during Barack Obama’s presidency that limited Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for sanctions relief. Trump not only squandered the opportunity to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions severely.

1 week ago | juancole.com | Juan Cole

By Farhang Morady, University of WestminsterThe Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said that his country’s campaign in Iran “could certainly” lead to regime change. In an interview with Fox News on June 15, he called the government in Tehran “very weak” and added that, given the opportunity, “80% of the [Iranian] people would throw these theological thugs out”. Israel’s military actions so far indicate that its goals probably do extend beyond eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme.

1 week ago | juancole.com | Yakov M. Rabkin |Juan Cole

Montréal (Special to Informed Comment; Featured) – As missiles fly across West Asia, I recall my trip to Iran where, in 2016, I discovered a fascinating country and a vibrant Jewish community. I enquire every day about the safety of people close to me in both Israel and Iran. What goes on there is tragic and criminal. Many reproach Israel for not following the wisdom of the Jewish tradition of seeking to turn an enemy into a friend.