Adam Posen

2 weeks ago | foreignaffairs.com | Zongyuan Liu |Sheila Smith |Natalie Caloca |Adam Posen

“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,” U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted in 2018, “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” This week, when the Trump administration imposed tariffs of more than 100 percent on U.S. imports from China, setting off a new and even more dangerous trade war, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a similar justification: “I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese...

3 weeks ago | piie.com | Olivier Blanchard |Adam Posen |Lawrence Summers

Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers, two of the world's most insightful policy macroeconomists, hold a deep discussion of the US and global implications of the Trump administration's economic strategy. They assess how these new measures will reshape the global landscape with potentially lasting effects on the role of the dollar, inflation, monetary policy, financial stability, and long-term growth trends. PIIE president Adam S. Posen moderates a discussion and Q&A session that follows.

Nov 22, 2024 | piie.com | Martin Chorzempa |Mary E. Lovely |Adam Posen |Karen Dynan |David Wilcox

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) with the China Finance 40 Forum (CF40), a leading independent think tank in China and longstanding PIIE partner in deepening US-China understanding, hold the seventh China Economic Forum on December 12, 2024.

Nov 12, 2024 | asia-pacificresearch.com | Adam Posen

East Asia could stand to gain in the short term from protectionist measures that US President-elect Trump is anticipated to level against China and Mexico. But long-term benefits will only come to East Asian economies if they proactively assert themselves as an independent force rather than instruments in the US–China battle for economic supremacy. Stronger cooperation between East Asian economies can champion the agency of third nations and strengthen open markets on the global stage.

Nov 10, 2024 | eastasiaforum.org | Adam Posen

US President-elect Trump will put tariffs up across the board, even if only initially as a negotiating tactic. He will increase bilateral tariffs on China and Mexico. The US Congress is likely to withdraw ‘Permanent Normal Trading Relations’ — that is, Most Favoured Nation treatment — from China, which would be even more aggressive, with even worse consequences. All else being equal, Trump’s tariff increases could yield an economic gain for East Asia in the short term.