The Eyewall

Introducing The Eyewall, your go-to source for regular updates on the Atlantic tropics, brought to you by Houston meteorologists Matt Lanza and Eric Berger.

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Less than a month til hurricane season, and we’re just going to have to see how this year goes

1 week ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

Speaking from the meteorology point of view, because we are meteorologists and this is a blog about weather, the upcoming hurricane season has few question marks at the moment. We expect a somewhat active but not crazy active season. We do expect a few more big storms than a normal season. And there is broad consensus on this to this point. How have water temps done since the end of April? Not a whole lot has changed.
Some miscellany to start the week on the upcoming hurricane season, observations, and NOAA

2 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

We focus a lot on Colorado State’s hurricane outlook, but many others are beginning to issue their own as well. This includes The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, which expect a slightly more active season. A number of outlooks are now public, and there seems to be a consensus that most entities buy into an active season but perhaps not a hyperactive one.
Spring heavy rain and flooding on the way to the Plains and parts of the Mid-South

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

The irony of writing about flooding from 34,000 feet above the Sonoran Desert doesn’t escape me at the moment, but here we are. I wanted to provide a Tuesday late day update on what’s ahead in the Southern Plains and Mid-South. Yesterday, we noted some thoughts about Mississippi River flooding and tied it back to another round of heavy rain potentially this weekend.
The pendulum swings back to high water on the Mississippi River

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

The southern half of Mississippi River will experience moderate to major flooding in the days ahead, albeit well under levels seen in other flood events in recent years. But the addition of potentially significant rainfall in portions of the Mid-South this weekend (Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas) could add to Lower Mississippi flooding risks.
Let’s talk about the Western U.S. and their water situation in 2025

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

As a meteorologist, weather in general fascinates me. I worked two years in California about 15 years ago, and when I took that job, everyone teased me, saying the weather was “so easy” to forecast. And, yes, about 80 percent of the year, conditions are pretty stable overall. There is nuance to that. Most people may not realize a minor difference in temperature from day to day, but it’s something that can be reflected in power usage.
Could the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season have some tricks up its sleeve? Breaking down the CSU Outlook

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

Late last week, the team at Colorado State University issued their always hotly anticipated seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin. To clear this up at the beginning, their forecast calls for:17 named storms (normal 14)9 hurricanes (normal 7)4 major hurricanes (normal 3)Accumulated cyclone energy: 155 (normal 123)Nothing about this forecast on the surface is especially notable or alarming or fascinating. It’s simply a slightly above average forecast.
A quieter week after an incredible rainfall forecast, as huge footprint of major flooding continues

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

Weather forecasts verified exceptionally well with the ongoing Mid-South flooding. Numerous rivers are experiencing or soon will experience major flooding as all this feeds into the larger Ohio/Mississippi Basin. A much quieter week is expected this week. Next week may be a good bit stormier, however. Now that it’s over, we can say that last week and weekend’s rainstorm sadly lived up to the expectations set days before. Take a look at the map comparison below.
Looking at the next 24 to 36 hours of severe weather and flooding in the Mid-South

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

Thunderstorms are cranking up as anticipated this afternoon all across the Mid-South all the way north to northern Indiana with a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings about 7 tornado warnings at the time I am writing this. A “high risk” for severe weather was issued from eastern Arkansas to just south of Evansville, Indiana today. The reasons included the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and very strong wind gusts.
Potential for catastrophic flooding by the weekend in the Mid-South and near the Ohio Valley

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

The National Weather Service in Paducah, KY did not mince words this afternoon in their briefing on the upcoming rainstorm across the Ohio Valley: “Significant and potentially historic rainfall will begin Wednesday afternoon, with numerous rounds of heavy rain continuing into the first half of the weekend, leading to potentially catastrophic flash flooding.”I have a whole post eventually coming to my Substack page on words and how we use them.
Near record rainfall possible, with flooding concerns growing in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys this week

1 month ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

Yesterday we jumped into the thought process behind the flooding concerns for this week. The update today is not much better. Over the last 30 days, rainfall has actually been manageable in the Ohio Valley and points south, with most areas seeing near normal or slightly below normal rains. You can see that most of Kentucky has been slightly below average, with much drier conditions to the west into Arkansas and Missouri.