The Eyewall

Introducing The Eyewall, your go-to source for regular updates on the Atlantic tropics, brought to you by Houston meteorologists Matt Lanza and Eric Berger.

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Sneaky subtropical Atlantic system no threat to land, Eastern heat wave blasts onward, flooding in New Mexico

5 days ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: Our first investigative area of hurricane season has formed in the Atlantic, but Invest 90L will not threaten any land. Meanwhile, heat roasts the East this week, while flooding threatens New Mexico. It’s easy to get so caught up in looking at the corridor between the Gulf, Caribbean, and Africa that mid-latitude systems out in the open Atlantic can sometimes just get lumped in with background noise. Indeed, it appears that this may be one of those cases.
The quiet Atlantic rolls on, so we look at a major Eastern heat wave

1 week ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: We explain what’s behind the quiet Atlantic start this season. We also look at how wet bulb globe temperatures can more adequately qualify the severity of the heat next week in the Eastern U.S.This morning at our Houston-focused site, Space City Weather, I explained to our local audience sort of why things have been quiet in the Atlantic. I am reposting that here today, as we have no further items to discuss at this point in time tropics-wise.
Pacific Hurricane Erick on the way to becoming a major hurricane and impacting Mexico

1 week ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall early Thursday morning in the state of Guerrero, east of Acapulco in Mexico as a major hurricane. Heavy rain, bad surge, and powerful winds will impact the Mexico coasts of eastern Guerrero and Oaxaca. In the U.S., a major heat wave will rev up this weekend and next week in the East. One look at Erick on satellite this afternoon, and you can see that this thing is well put together.
High five: Erick forms in the Pacific, likely to be a hurricane for southern Mexico

1 week ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: The Atlantic remains calm, while the Pacific churns out its fifth storm, this one probably the strongest of the season so far, headed for hurricane intensity. Severe weather should also impact Kansas today. Image of one of the most photogenic tornadoes you’ll ever see by one of my favorite storm chasers. This occurred on Monday evening near Wellfleet, Nebraska. It appears this occurred over open land, and I cannot find any reports of damage. Truly awestriking.
Tropical disturbances likely to bring significant rain to Mexico and possibly far south Texas later this week

1 week ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: A developing storm in the Eastern Pacific may combine with an unlikely to develop disturbance in the Bay of Campeche to deliver a significant rainfall to Mexico or parts of far South Texas later this week. Otherwise, the tropics appear quiet. We do not expect any tropical development in the Atlantic this week. But there is still a disturbance to discuss in the Bay of Campeche later this week, as well as continued Pacific activity.
Status quo continues as Atlantic activity remains unlikely for a bit

2 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: The Atlantic remains quiet, so today we look at recent pre-July activity and assess the odds of a weak disturbance forming next week in the southwest Gulf. Quick note: Colorado State updated their seasonal hurricane outlook with no changes in expectations today. You can see the full update here. Would anyone care to hazard a guess as to the last time we got to the end of June with no tropical storms having formed in the Atlantic? Anyone? No? Okay. 2014.
Pacific padding stats, while the Atlantic should continue calm this week

2 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: The Eastern Pacific is off to the races with 2 storms and a third possible by the weekend. None are serious land threats. The Atlantic is quiet this week but may have a window for weak development next week. And Texas is going to see the rains move in this week too. We’re up to named storm number three in the Eastern Pacific after Barbara and Cosme formed this weekend.
Tropical development chances are specifically in the Pacific, while dust and Canadian wildfire smoke are Eastern features

2 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: The Pacific looks to get a series of lower-end tropical systems, while the Atlantic remains dusty and quiet for the time being. We also examine Canadian wildfires today. It’s busy times in the Pacific over the next week, as there are three areas earmarked by the National Hurricane Center today for possible development. None of these systems appear to be a threat to the Mexico coast at this time. Nor do any of them look to get especially strong.
A quiet Atlantic persists but for how long? And more about the GFS scareicanes!

3 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: Today we explain why the Pacific should be more active than the Atlantic through the next 7 to 10 days and when that could theoretically change. We also talk more about the GFS model’s phantom storm bias. We’ll keep this fairly brief today. The Atlantic is quiet, so I don’t want to go fishing for speculative information. Plenty of other sites do that. That said, we know people want to know how long the generally calm conditions will persist.
Wee chance of tropical development near the Southeast coast the next couple days

3 weeks ago | theeyewall.com | Matt Lanza

In brief: There is a very small chance that a weak tropical system could develop near the Florida or Georgia coasts over the next couple days. Any development would be on the lower end of the intensity scale, and the primary impact will be some heavy rainfall. A weak disturbance is crawling up and just offshore of Florida’s east coast. The odds of this thing actually developing as it comes north are pretty low. Currently the NHC holds the odds around 10 percent.