Adam Boyton

1 month ago | anz.com | Adam Boyton |Richard Yetsenga |Adelaide Timbrell

After two consecutive surpluses the budget has moved into deficit. The budget papers show a forecast deficit of $A27.6 billion (1 per cent of GDP) in 2024–25 and $A42.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2025–26. The budget is forecast to remain in deficit until the middle of the next decade. In aggregate there is little change to the key budget numbers relative to those contained in the December 2024 mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO).

Jul 16, 2024 | anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Sanjay Mathur |Adam Boyton |Brian Martin

The shocking events in the United States surrounding former US president and 2024 candidate Donald Trump confirm the political and economic environments are intertwined across the world in a way we haven’t seen for decades. There’s been some time to assess the consequences of the attempt on Trump’s life and while there are immediate implications, and some that will be longer lasting, we need to avoid the temptation to view these implications as isolated.

May 14, 2024 | bluenotes.anz.com | Adam Boyton

The key measures in the budget include electricity bill relief for all households. There is $22.7 billion over the decade to help fund the ‘Future Made in Australia’ package. And there are a range of policy decisions around housing and infrastructure investment. On the economy, Treasury expects gross domestic product growth of 2 per cent during 2024-25. It also expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5 per cent by the June quarter 2025.

May 14, 2024 | anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Adam Boyton |Catherine Birch |Madeline Dunk

There is no change to ANZ Research’s growth, inflation, or monetary policy forecasts as a result of the 2024-25 Australian federal budget. The fiscal environment is, though, the most contested it has been in some years, suggesting whatever was handed down in this budget was likely to generate plenty of commentary. There is broad recognition excess demand is part of the reason inflation is proving to be sticky. But both inflation and monetary policy impact indiscriminately.

Oct 31, 2023 | anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Alexandra Cooper |Adam Boyton

China today is incomparable with where it was two decades ago – and its key opportunities for the future are clear. I was in Shanghai recently and the city keeps getting better. Particularly noticeable to me was the fleet of cars were very, very new. In fact, I cannot think of a city which eclipses the cars in Shanghai – and among them were many electric vehicles. That shift, and others happening as part of the transition to net-zero carbon, are at the heart of China’s new economic opportunity.