Richard Yetsenga
Chief Economist, ANZ Banking Group and Contributor at BlueNotes
ANZ Bank Chief Economist. CEDA Board. GAICD. Asia. Antipodes. China. Climate. Diversity. India. Technology. Human economics.
Articles
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2 weeks ago |
anz.com | Richard Yetsenga
We are in Trump pivot territory. In my career I have never seen the likes of what is occurring in the United States, and the world, right now. The crises of my time — the Asian crisis, tech bust, global financial crisis and even the COVID-19 pandemic — were errors in which some degree of latitude was reasonable when judging actions. But that also meant as pennies began to drop, the policy path and the timing could be understood. Conventional economics has a certain logic to it.
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3 weeks ago |
anz.com.au | Catherine Birch |Richard Yetsenga
Australia’s major project pipeline – underscored by Queensland’s electricity and hospital spending boost – is expected to peak at $80.3 billion in the 2026 financial year. “Queensland is the standout; the state’s potential pipeline over the next five years is more than double that of the past five years.”The pipeline rose by almost $11 billion to hit $64.9 billion in the 2024 financial year (FY).
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1 month ago |
anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Adelaide Timbrell
There are three frames through which we can look at the Australian federal budget: the political frame, the strategic frame and the cyclical frame. All matter for the outlook in their own way. The budget is always an economic document, with a wrapping of politics. The line item “decisions taken but not yet announced” gives a sense of how much additional policy might be to come in the campaign. This is largely a wash on the revenue side.
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1 month ago |
anz.com | Adam Boyton |Richard Yetsenga |Adelaide Timbrell
After two consecutive surpluses the budget has moved into deficit. The budget papers show a forecast deficit of $A27.6 billion (1 per cent of GDP) in 2024–25 and $A42.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2025–26. The budget is forecast to remain in deficit until the middle of the next decade. In aggregate there is little change to the key budget numbers relative to those contained in the December 2024 mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO).
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2 months ago |
lowyinstitute.org | Richard Yetsenga
The post-pandemic period in most economies has been characterised by skills shortages and budgetary pressure on government entitlement programs. These are consequences of demographic changes that, from almost every angle, seem likely to intensify. The economic implications are substantial. Advanced economies, over the past decade, have seen a decline in the share of the population that is of working age. This is only the second such fall in 150 years.
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This quote is quite relevant. If the tariffs are sustained, I would be very cautious about model outcomes. https://t.co/XjBcoa6S4q
Is it madness or is it "Brexit-by-CBAM"? Locating Trumpian economics in policy space. Another day, another effort to make sense of "manly tariffs". Chartbook newsletter #369 just dropped. https://t.co/uOssCkbqMN https://t.co/e6YnSjUyWL
Economists often talk about ‘policy errors’. But I have never seen anything like this.
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The Australian budget in three frames. https://t.co/taH82UXhbR
