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1 month ago | 
anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Adelaide Timbrell
There are three frames through which we can look at the Australian federal budget: the political frame, the strategic frame and the cyclical frame. All matter for the outlook in their own way. The budget is always an economic document, with a wrapping of politics. The line item “decisions taken but not yet announced” gives a sense of how much additional policy might be to come in the campaign. This is largely a wash on the revenue side.
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1 month ago | 
anz.com | Adam Boyton |Richard Yetsenga |Adelaide Timbrell
After two consecutive surpluses the budget has moved into deficit. The budget papers show a forecast deficit of $A27.6 billion (1 per cent of GDP) in 2024–25 and $A42.1 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) in 2025–26. The budget is forecast to remain in deficit until the middle of the next decade. In aggregate there is little change to the key budget numbers relative to those contained in the December 2024 mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO).
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Feb 12, 2024 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell |Madeline Dunk
ANZ-observed spending data for January shows that Australians tightened their belts and spent less on everything from fashion to electronics so far in the New Year.
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Dec 10, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell |Madeline Dunk
Over this year’s Black Friday weekend — a four-day sales bonanza — ANZ saw spending on retail excluding food increase one per cent compared to 2022.
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Oct 12, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Arindam Chakraborty |Adelaide Timbrell
One less encouraging reason “current finances” confidence is likely trending up may be because the question asks participants to compare their current finances to a year ago, and inflation and interest rates were already a central issue for households in late 2022. "One less encouraging reason ‘current finances’ confidence is likely trending up may be because the question asks participants to compare their current finances to a year ago.” – Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ Senior Economist.
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Jun 26, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell
During COVID lockdowns and through 2020 and 2021, we observed strong measured productivity growth. But this growth was unsustainable and had to reverse. The unwinding COVID productivity growth should flow through. However, it is important to remember the ten years before COVID-19 saw very little productivity growth. It was only around 1.1 per cent on average every year. The five years to 2019 had an annual average of just 0.5 per cent annual productivity growth.
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May 9, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell
The cost of living was key to new policies announced, including an increase to JobSeeker of $A40 per fortnight. Overall, the budget showed an increase in payments, but not enough to actually increase payments as a share of gross domestic product. Adelaide Timbrell is a Senior Economist at ANZThis article originally appeared in ANZ Insights on 10 May 2023
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May 9, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell |Madeline Dunk
The budget is back in the black – for now. The Australian federal budget position will briefly return to surplus in 2022-23 to the tune of $A4.2 billion, before slipping back into deficit in 2023-24. The budget also contained measures aimed at addressing the cost-of-living for Australians as well as offering support for women. You can see the key details in the easy-to-read and easy-to-share infographic below.
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Apr 19, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell
That is the question many in the markets have been asking themselves in recent months as more than a decade of globally low inflation and rock bottom interest rates reverse. "You would see people lining up outside banks and say, 'Oh Oh, that seems like a run'.
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Feb 27, 2023 | 
bluenotes.anz.com | Adelaide Timbrell
How is this affecting mortgages? Currently in the Australian mortgage market, 70 per cent of housing debt is variable – which means interest rates move roughly in line with the RBA cash rate (although not necessarily). That means for every $100 of mortgage debt in Australia, $70 is at a variable and $30 is fixed. In fact, most households have already experienced some form of interest hike impact.
