Ana M Aguilar

Oct 14, 2024 | bis.org | Ana M Aguilar |Rafael A. Guerra |Berenice Martínez

FocusIn 2021 and 2022, inflation saw a synchronised increase in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). The inflation surge, which was initially thought to be transitory, was later diagnosed as persistent, and short-term inflation expectations across AEs and EMEs saw significant upward revisions. In this context, we address two crucial questions: How has the sensitivity of inflation expectations to global inflation changed in EMEs recently?

Sep 26, 2024 | aei.org | Steven Kamin |Ana M Aguilar |Jon Frost |Rafael A. Guerra

AbstractWe examine the relationship between digital payment innovation, economic growth and informal activities in 101 economies over 2014–19. We find that a one-percentage point increase in digital payments use is associated with increases in the growth of GDP per capita of 0.10 percentage points over a two-year period, and a decline in the share of informal sector employment of 0.06 percentage points over a two-year period.

Sep 17, 2024 | aei.org | Ana M Aguilar |Julian Caballero |Julián Caballero |Jon Frost |Christian Upper

AbstractAcross the Americas, low output and productivity growth are key policy challenges. Growth expectations for many countries have fallen in recent years, with Latin America and the Caribbean especially lagging behind emerging market peers. In many cases, total factor productivity growth has been negative for decades. This is due to several structural factors, including low overall investment, low educational attainment, high informality, and inadequate infrastructure.

Jul 8, 2024 | aei.org | Steven Kamin |Ana M Aguilar |Jon Frost |Rafael A. Guerra

By Ana Aguilar, Jon Frost, Rafael Guerra, Steven Kamin and Alexandre TombiniAbstractWe examine the relationship between digital payment innovation, economic growth and informal activities in 101 economies over 2014–19.

Jul 1, 2024 | bis.org | Ana M Aguilar |Jon Frost |Rafael A. Guerra |Steven Kamin

FocusDigital payments have become quite popular in advanced economies, but their rapid growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is especially noteworthy. Between 2014 and 2021, the number of adults in EMDEs using digital payments increased from 35% to 57%. This raises the question of how digital payments contribute to economic growth and development. To date, macro evidence is limited on the extent to which digital payments impact economic growth.