Rafael A. Guerra

Oct 14, 2024 | bis.org | Ana M Aguilar |Rafael A. Guerra |Berenice Martínez

FocusIn 2021 and 2022, inflation saw a synchronised increase in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). The inflation surge, which was initially thought to be transitory, was later diagnosed as persistent, and short-term inflation expectations across AEs and EMEs saw significant upward revisions. In this context, we address two crucial questions: How has the sensitivity of inflation expectations to global inflation changed in EMEs recently?

Sep 26, 2024 | aei.org | Steven Kamin |Ana M Aguilar |Jon Frost |Rafael A. Guerra

AbstractWe examine the relationship between digital payment innovation, economic growth and informal activities in 101 economies over 2014–19. We find that a one-percentage point increase in digital payments use is associated with increases in the growth of GDP per capita of 0.10 percentage points over a two-year period, and a decline in the share of informal sector employment of 0.06 percentage points over a two-year period.

Sep 9, 2024 | aei.org | Steven Kamin |Rafael A. Guerra |John Kearns |Christian Upper

By Rafael Guerra, Steven Kamin, John Kearns, Christian Upper, and Aatman VakilAbstractThis paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation-targeting central banks. We find that during the inflationary surge of 2021–23, monetary policy reacted more strongly and more quickly to changes in inflation than predicted by a standard linear Taylor rule, estimated on data from the pre-pandemic period.

Sep 5, 2024 | bis.org | Rafael A. Guerra |Steven Kamin |John Kearns |Christian Upper

FocusOver the past 15 years, central banks in emerging market economies (EMEs), including those in Latin America, appear to have pursued more balanced monetary policies. That is, the policies respond to deviations of both economic activity from some equilibrium level and inflation from target.

Aug 12, 2024 | medium.com | Rafael A. Guerra

A few months ago, a performance management company made quite the headlines when it announced it was deploying AI employees and giving them onboarding and performance goals. The so-called ‘employees’ had names and faces. They had managers, and a place in the company’s org chart. All this while the same company held layoffs with real employees only a few months before.