Christian Upper

Sep 17, 2024 | aei.org | Ana M Aguilar |Julian Caballero |Julián Caballero |Jon Frost |Christian Upper

AbstractAcross the Americas, low output and productivity growth are key policy challenges. Growth expectations for many countries have fallen in recent years, with Latin America and the Caribbean especially lagging behind emerging market peers. In many cases, total factor productivity growth has been negative for decades. This is due to several structural factors, including low overall investment, low educational attainment, high informality, and inadequate infrastructure.

Sep 9, 2024 | aei.org | Steven Kamin |Rafael A. Guerra |John Kearns |Christian Upper

By Rafael Guerra, Steven Kamin, John Kearns, Christian Upper, and Aatman VakilAbstractThis paper estimates empirical Taylor rules to analyze the recent monetary policy of the five main Latin American inflation-targeting central banks. We find that during the inflationary surge of 2021–23, monetary policy reacted more strongly and more quickly to changes in inflation than predicted by a standard linear Taylor rule, estimated on data from the pre-pandemic period.

Sep 5, 2024 | bis.org | Rafael A. Guerra |Steven Kamin |John Kearns |Christian Upper

FocusOver the past 15 years, central banks in emerging market economies (EMEs), including those in Latin America, appear to have pursued more balanced monetary policies. That is, the policies respond to deviations of both economic activity from some equilibrium level and inflation from target.

Nov 24, 2023 | bis.org | Ana M Aguilar |Jon Frost |Christian Upper |Fabrizio Zampolli

This volume discusses the major developments of the last two decades and how they might affect the future. It presents a collection of chapters – one from each country represented on the BIS Consultative Council of the Americas (CCA). These contributions review the experience of the past 20 years to draw lessons that would help central banks to meet the challenges of the future. We complement this collection with two additional chapters.

Nov 23, 2023 | bis.org | Michael Chui |Emanuel Kohlscheen |Christian Upper

Inflation shot up in both emerging market economies (EMEs) and advanced economies (AEs) in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. While labour market developments were not a key source of the surge, they could become important for the persistence of inflation and, thus, the path of disinflation.