Caleb Withers

1 month ago | cnas.org | Paul Scharre |Caleb Withers |Josh Wallin

Executive SummaryWith each passing year, the promise of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy to change the character of war inches closer to reality. This technology will continue to expand the pace, volume, and scope of future conflict, as seen in reports of basic autonomy used in Ukraine to guide drones or in Israel’s reported use of AI to perform targeting in Gaza.

Oct 22, 2024 | cnas.org | Paul Scharre |Markus Anderljung |Caleb Withers |Pablo Chavez

Reports August 13, 2024 AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks New AI capabilities may reshape the risk landscape for biothreats in several ways. AI is enabling new capabilities that might, in theory, allow advanced actors to optimize bio... By Bill Drexel & Caleb Withers Commentary Foreign Policy August 4, 2024 The 1960s Novella That Got AI (Mostly) Right A secret military project. A vast artificial mind. Questions of consciousness.

May 24, 2024 | cnas.org | Markus Anderljung |Caleb Withers |Paul Scharre

A secret military project. A vast artificial mind. Questions of consciousness. These form the premise of Dino Buzzati’s The Singularity, originally published in 1960 at the dawn of the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The novella follows Italian scientist Ermanno Ismani, summoned by the Ministry of Defense to work on a top-secret project, as he ventures with his wife, Elisa, to a sprawling machine hidden in the mountains of the Italian countryside.

May 1, 2024 | cnas.org | Carol Kuntz |Richard Danzig |Vivek Chilukuri |Caleb Withers

Late last year U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in San Francisco in an attempt to restabilize the relationship after a troubled year. The meeting ended without a concrete agreement on AI, despite rumors of one, but both sides committed to form a working group on AI in the future. Since then, little progress has been made in defining this working group. Even so, it carries the seeds of potential success.

Apr 4, 2024 | cnas.org | Caleb Withers |Paul Scharre

The development and deployment of highly capable, general-purpose frontier AI systems—such as GPT-4, Gemini, Llama 3, Claude 3, and beyond—will likely produce major societal benefits across many fields. As these systems grow more powerful, however, they are also likely to pose serious risks to public welfare, individual rights, and national security.