Charlie Cook

Harpswell

Political Analyst at NBC News

Political Analyst at National Journal

Founder and Contributor at The Cook Political Report

Non-partisan political analyst. Founder and Contributor to The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, political analyst for National Journal and NBC News.

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Articles

Will Trump’s Party Take a Hit in the Midterms if Consumer Confidence Continues To Sag?

2 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

Anyone who reads this column regularly knows that the party holding the presidency usually loses House seats. In 18 of the 20 post-World War II midterms, the average outcome has been a net loss of 26 seats. They also know that the pattern exists in the Senate but to a lesser extent: There have been losses in only 13 of those cycles, with the average outcome being a loss of 3.8 seats. For Democrats, there is good news and bad news. The bad news is that the public doesn’t like them.
The Vanishing Swing Voter Has Made Politics More Boring (And Tougher for Democrats)

3 weeks ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

House and Senate races were a lot more interesting back when there were plenty of swing voters. Whether they were “pure independents”—those who consider themselves independent and do not tilt in either direction—or whether they were soft partisans aligned with one party but who didn’t need much to jump to the other side, there are just a lot fewer of those people around anymore.
The vanishing swing voter has made politics more boring (and tougher for Democrats)

3 weeks ago | nationaljournal.com | Nicholas Anastacio |Nicholas Anastácio |Charlie Cook

House and Senate races were a lot more interesting back when there were plenty of swing voters. Whether they were “pure independents”—those who consider themselves independent and do not tilt in either direction—or whether they were soft partisans aligned with one party but who didn’t need much to jump to the other side, there are just a lot fewer of those people around anymore.
'Do something': How Tim Kaine has found a way to slow Trump's agenda (with the help of a few Republicans)

1 month ago | nationaljournal.com | Savannah Behrmann |Charlie Cook |Kirk Bado

Tim Kaine no longer wears his Senate member lapel pin to work. Instead, the Democrat has been sporting one with Virginia’s seal, which he said serves as a daily, physical reminder to be “on guard against tyranny.”“It's a woman emphasizing virtue, standing atop a monarch who's been knocked over and his crown has fallen off. [It's] the only state that has a motto that, instead of being a positive celebration, is more of a warning or rebuke,” Kaine said.
Could Republicans Blow It Again?

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

While Democrats’ odds of taking back the Senate are long, an announcement Monday afternoon should remind us why we can’t dismiss the possibility entirely. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s declaration that he would not challenge freshman Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff next year means more than the GOP not having its strongest horse.
Trump wants more AI in schools. This senator helped create the blueprint.

1 month ago | nationaljournal.com | Savannah Behrmann |Charlie Cook |Philip Athey |Erin Durkin

Sen. Jon Husted wants Washington to take a lesson from his home state and share it with the rest of the country: Make AI available to every school child in America. But the Ohio Republican isn’t encouraging more AI in schools just to help with the lesson plans. He argues it’s crucial to ensure the future of America’s global competitiveness. Less than four months on the job, Ohio’s former lieutenant governor has emerged as one of Capitol Hill’s biggest champions of AI.
A Unified Theory of Economic Attitudes

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

For both psephologists and everyday, armchair students of polls, the period leading into a new president’s 100th day in office is akin to Thanksgiving, with a veritable feast of polls that range across the quality spectrum. Looking through them all, the best argument that President Trump’s backers can point to is the complete solidarity of fellow Republicans: Just when it seemed that his numbers couldn’t go any higher among the party faithful, they did.
Projecting the ‘First 100 Days’ Polls

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

Expect a torrent of new polls coming out over the next week in advance of President Trump’s 100th day in office next Wednesday. Most are likely to present numbers that should cause heartburn for party strategists and operatives. The partisan spin will be predictable: Republicans will point to the Democratic Party’s favorability ratings being so badly underwater as to almost be in Titanic territory.
Projecting the 'first 100 days' polls

1 month ago | nationaljournal.com | Natalie Jackson |Nicholas Anastacio |Nicholas Anastácio |Charlie Cook

Expect a torrent of new polls coming out over the next week in advance of President Trump’s 100th day in office next Wednesday. Most are likely to present numbers that should cause heartburn for party strategists and operatives. The partisan spin will be predictable: Republicans will point to the Democratic Party’s favorability ratings being so badly underwater as to almost be in Titanic territory.
Dems Play Defense, but Republicans Still Have the Downside Risk

1 month ago | cookpolitical.com | Charlie Cook

Although the November 2026 midterm elections are a full 19 months away, the turbulence in the economy leads us to wonder whether President Trump will be a liability for the Republican Party in defending their Senate and House majorities, or if he will not be a determinative factor at all. During Trump’s first term, his highest Gallup Poll approval rating was 49 percent, with a low of 34 percent.