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1 week ago | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman |Julia Cataneo
Even before President Trump’s escalation of the trade war, China’s economy was in trouble. The bursting of its epic housing and credit market bubble had led to a wave of property developer defaults, falling home prices, and serious strains on local government finances. In turn, that led to a marked slowing in the Chinese economy to among the lowest growth rate in decades.
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2 weeks ago | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman |Julia Cataneo
President Trump’s equanimity in the face of one of the most rapid stock market meltdowns in living memory reminds me of the old Wall Street joke about the man who jumped off the Empire State Building. When asked at the fortieth floor how he was doing, he replied “So far, so good.”In reaction to last week’s 10 percent decline in stock market prices in only two days, Trump and his economic team have been dismissive of the economic damage that might have occurred.
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1 month ago | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman |Julia Cataneo
In March 2021, at the start of his presidency, Joe Biden made a major economic policy error. He enacted an excessively large budget stimulus in the form of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. That stimulus contributed to inflation surging to over nine percent by June 2022. High inflation in turn played a major role in the Democrats crushing defeat in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections. Fast forward to today.
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Jan 21, 2025 | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman |Julia Cataneo
The bond market is sending President-elect Donald Trump a clear message. It is that he should be careful about that for which he wishes when it comes to massive tax cuts and bending the Federal Reserve to his will. The market is warning Trump that if he persists in moving in that policy direction, he risks both an economic recession and a financial market crisis.
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Jan 17, 2025 | 
seekingalpha.com | Desmond Lachman
Jan. 17, 2025 2:20 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryOn the eve of Donald Trump’s White House return, the Chinese government announced that last year it recorded a trade surplus of almost $1 trillion, a third of which was with the US.
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Jan 15, 2025 | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman
On Monday of next week, Donald Trump will begin his second term in the White House against several indicators that suggest that now is not the time for budget policy recklessness. We hope Mr. Trump is paying close attention to those indicators. Maybe he will then walk back some of the budget-busting tax-cut proposals he kept making on the campaign trail. If he does not, we should brace ourselves for rough economic sledding this year. Start with inflation.
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Jan 15, 2025 | 
19fortyfive.com | Desmond Lachman
On Monday of next week, Donald Trump will begin his second term in the White House against several indicators that suggest that now is not the time for budget policy recklessness. We hope Mr. Trump is paying close attention to those indicators. Maybe he will then walk back some of the budget-busting tax-cut proposals he kept making on the campaign trail. If he does not, we should brace ourselves for rough economic sledding this year. Start with inflation.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
aei.org | Desmond Lachman
Key Points and Summary: As Donald Trump prepares to assume office, the bond market is already reacting to fears over his proposed economic policies. Long-term interest rates have spiked, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping from 3.6% to over 4.7% since his election victory. -This rise signals concerns about Trump’s planned tariffs and tax cuts, which could exacerbate inflation and balloon the national debt, already nearing 100% of GDP.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
19fortyfive.com | Desmond Lachman
Key Points and Summary: As Donald Trump prepares to assume office, the bond market is already reacting to fears over his proposed economic policies. Long-term interest rates have spiked, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping from 3.6% to over 4.7% since his election victory. -This rise signals concerns about Trump’s planned tariffs and tax cuts, which could exacerbate inflation and balloon the national debt, already nearing 100% of GDP.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
seekingalpha.com | Desmond Lachman
Jan. 10, 2025 12:40 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryThe world economy is always subject to downside risks. However, what distinguishes the current situation is the unusually large constellation of major economic and geopolitical downside risks.
