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2 weeks ago | 
aei.org | Kevin Corinth |Stan Veuger |Julia Cataneo
Last Friday, we showed that the Trump Administration’s tariff formula contained an error that made its calculated tariffs up to four times too large. The entire premise of the administration’s approach–that a country’s tariff and non-tariff trade barriers can be derived solely from the bilateral trade balance with that country, and that the goal of trade policy should be to avoid bilateral trade deficits altogether–makes no economic sense.
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2 months ago | 
aei.org | With Stan Veuger |Michael Strain |Stan Veuger |Frederick M. Hess
The second Trump administration has announced and threatened to enact a range of disruptive and broadly protectionist trade policy changes. As America’s allies and trading partners consider their response, uncertainty reigns. AEI’s Michael R. Strain and Stan Veuger welcome Maroš Šefčovič, European commissioner for trade and economic security, for a conversation about economic security, trade policy, and EU-US cooperation. Submit questions to or on X with #AskAEIEcon.
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Dec 3, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Stan Veuger |Tara Watson
Editor's note: This is an update to an October 2024 analysis, which is archived here. Few issues dominated the 2024 presidential contest like immigration. In this analysis, we consider likely paths for net migration during president-elect Trump’s second term and their macroeconomic implications. The starting point for our analysis is the creation of a “high immigration” and a “low immigration” scenario.
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Nov 4, 2024 | 
aei.org | Stan Veuger |Wendy Edelberg |Tara Watson |Zichu Yang
In a few days, voters will decide between two presidential candidates with starkly different visions for immigration policy. In a recent report, we estimate that differences in immigration policy alone will cause GDP growth in 2025 to be roughly half a percentage point or $130 billion lower in a second Trump presidency than under a Harris presidency. That difference is significant given that forecasters are expecting the economy to grow by two percent next year.
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Oct 29, 2024 | 
aei.org | Daniel Shoag |Michael Strain |Stan Veuger
AbstractWe report the results of a survey of truck drivers: Those who are most concerned about automation are, counterintuitively, also most likely to say they intend to reinvest in that occupation. This finding does not hold among drivers who are most familiar with the low costs of community college.
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Oct 21, 2024 | 
aei.org | Alex Brill |Kyle Pomerleau |Stan Veuger |Zichu Yang
JD Vance and Kamala Harris have at least one thing in common: proposals to expand the child tax credit (CTC). Currently, the CTC offers households up to $2,000 per child under the age of 17. It phases in as wages exceed $2,500 (an incentive to work) and phases out for high-income workers (a disincentive to work). After 2025, the credit is scheduled to drop to $1,000 per child. In a recent Tax Notes article, we compared the expansion proposals and noted three important distinctions:1.
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Oct 16, 2024 | 
aei.org | Alex Brill |Kyle Pomerleau |Stan Veuger |Zichu Yang
During a recent speech at the Detroit Economic Club, former President Donald Trump proposed partially renewing a tax policy in effect prior to the Tax Reform Act of 1986 that allowed taxpayers to fully deduct interest expense on auto loans.
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Oct 16, 2024 | 
aei.org | Stan Veuger |Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Tara Watson
Few issues have dominated the political debate in recent years like immigration. The two candidates for president, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. In this analysis, we consider possible paths for net migration under these agendas and their likely macroeconomic implications.
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Oct 16, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Wendy Edelberg |Cecilia Esterline |Stan Veuger |Tara Watson
Few issues have dominated the political debate in recent years like immigration. The two candidates for president, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy. In this analysis, we consider possible paths for net migration under these agendas and their likely macroeconomic implications.
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Oct 7, 2024 | 
aei.org | Alex Brill |Kyle Pomerleau |Stan Veuger |Zichu Yang
Last month, former President Donald Trump declared, “If you’re an overtime worker, when you’re past 40 hours a week . . . your overtime hours will be tax-free.” If kept, this promise, though as vague as many of the proposals coming from the Trump campaign, risks creating compliance and administrative burdens, not to mention significantly reducing revenue. However, there is also notable logic behind the proposal. First, the good news.
