Dhiraj Nim

Dec 17, 2024 | anz.com | Dhiraj Nim |ANZ Research |Sharon Zollner |Richard Yetsenga

High food inflation is a major concern in India, with the weather taking much of the blame. However, the multiyear food-price surge goes beyond just rainfall or heatwaves. India’s food inflation episodes warrant a broader lens, considering farm input costs, per capita income growth, food demand, and logistical costs. These factors are more predictable and intricately linked to food inflation trends – and even suggest food inflation may fall in 2025.

Sep 18, 2024 | economictimes.indiatimes.com | Dhiraj Nim

An exceptionally stable exchange rate for the rupee has sparked a debate: is it overvalued or undervalued? Some measures, such as RBI's trade-weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) index, suggest the currency is overvalued by around 7%. But other nuanced approaches point to it being undervalued to a similar extent. REER index is the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates adjusted for inflation differentials with key trading partners.

Jun 21, 2024 | cfo-india.in | Dhiraj Nim

India’s inflation data has shown two ‘divides’ in recent times. The gap between food and core inflation has got most attention. The unanimous opinion is that adequate rain will support agricultural output and cool food inflation, paving the way for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The most puzzling divide, however, is India’s widening rural-urban inflation gap. Consumer price index (CPI) data for May confirmed that high rural inflation is keeping the 4% inflation target elusive.

Apr 29, 2024 | economictimes.indiatimes.com | Dhiraj Nim

A long-term financial cycle has coincided with, and bolstered, the current investment cycle . That's good and bad news for India 's growing economy. The outcome is a higher investment-to-GDP ratio. But there is need for caution. If the financial cycle runs ahead of the business cycle unchecked, eventual stresses could be severe, worsening the inevitable downturn.Financial cycles reflect a co-movement of variables, such as bank credit and asset prices.

Apr 17, 2024 | anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Sharon Zollner |Dhiraj Nim |David Croy

We are just over a third of the way through a period that has been dubbed 'the ultimate election year’. So far it hasn’t been a year of election surprises. The results in Pakistan were a surprise. Elsewhere it’s primarily been continuity or expected change, as we saw in Indonesia. The main election in the spotlight right now is India, and that is widely expected to result in continuity.