Sharon Zollner

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Articles

Outlook 25: volatility & opportunity in Asia

Jan 14, 2025 | anz.com | Khoon Goh |Katharine Tapley |Sharon Zollner |Simone Fynmore

The new year will be a period of uncertainty and volatility in the Asian region, but also one of opportunity. Global trade, critical for Asia's economic prosperity, will be impacted by the tariff policies of the incoming administration in the United States. This is a major source of downside risk to the region's growth prospects for 2025. In a bid to offset the impact of these moves, ANZ Research expects China to implement fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to support domestic demand.
ANZ shifts Aus rate call to Feb

Jan 13, 2025 | anz.com | Hari Janakiraman |Katharine Tapley |Sharon Zollner

ANZ Research has brought forward its forecast for the first interest rate cut of the cycle in Australia to February 2025, after softer-than-expected November inflation data. ANZ Research previously expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would begin its easing cycle in May. Speaking to the 5 in 5 with ANZ podcast, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Catherine Birch said the outlook had changed following a weaker-than-expected monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator in the November.
Outlook 25: AI goes from hype to help

Dec 18, 2024 | anz.com | Hari Janakiraman |Katharine Tapley |Sharon Zollner |Richard Yetsenga

The year 2025 will see a continued maturation of generative artificial intelligence, or genAI, use in business – moving past the hype cycle and into genuine use cases which solve problems. Many businesses are already exploring how genAI can help them with customer services, the automation of invoice processing, reconciliation and accounts payable, and that will continue to accelerate in the new year. {video}Growth in the digital assets and tokenisation space in 2025 is also likely to continue.
A food inflation story beyond weather

Dec 17, 2024 | anz.com | Dhiraj Nim |ANZ Research |Sharon Zollner |Richard Yetsenga

High food inflation is a major concern in India, with the weather taking much of the blame. However, the multiyear food-price surge goes beyond just rainfall or heatwaves. India’s food inflation episodes warrant a broader lens, considering farm input costs, per capita income growth, food demand, and logistical costs. These factors are more predictable and intricately linked to food inflation trends – and even suggest food inflation may fall in 2025.
No surprises in a year of votes (yet)

Apr 17, 2024 | anz.com | Richard Yetsenga |Sharon Zollner |Dhiraj Nim |David Croy

We are just over a third of the way through a period that has been dubbed 'the ultimate election year’. So far it hasn’t been a year of election surprises. The results in Pakistan were a surprise. Elsewhere it’s primarily been continuity or expected change, as we saw in Indonesia. The main election in the spotlight right now is India, and that is widely expected to result in continuity.
Macro impacts in New Zealand from an increase in global term rates

Oct 27, 2023 | interest.co.nz | David Crow |Sharon Zollner |Gareth Vaughan |Andre Castaing

Bonds / opinion The ANZ economics team looks at how the global interest rate shifts up impact our economic policymaking and economic prospects 28th Oct 23, 9:15am by By Andre Castaing, David Crow and Sharon Zollner Summary Recent rises in global interest rates have driven local long-term rates higher too. The direct impact of long-term rates on economic activity is less in New Zealand than in the US, but that’s not to suggest they don’t matter. Rising US rates have strengthened the USD and...
New Zealand Outlook: Rates Ruffle Feathers

May 16, 2023 | bluenotes.anz.com | Sharon Zollner

A stagnant housing market, weakening labour demand, slower household spending and reduced business and residential investment will see the economy slip into recession in the second half of the year. "While the economy could surprise us, risks are still skewed to the RBNZ needing to do more to get inflation down."Whether inflation has been tamed and, subsequently, whether there will be a need for more rate rises is unclear.
Inflationary risks from Cyclone Gabrielle’s misery

Feb 28, 2023 | bluenotes.anz.com | Sharon Zollner

The economic cost of the cyclone is, as yet, impossible to quantify. But the sheer number of people and the area impacted point to a significant effect on economic activity. First there’s the near-term disruption and destruction (for example, of agricultural production) and, in the longer term, the repair and rebuild that will happen over 2023 (and beyond). “The impacts of the cyclone point to clear upside risks to inflation.
Light at the end of the tunnel for New Zealand agriculture

Feb 23, 2023 | bluenotes.anz.com | Susan Kilsby |Sharon Zollner

But forecasts of global growth are generally now being revised up rather than down with more resilience than expected in European growth, in particular. " China’s demand for New Zealand export goods should start to improve later this year once the impact of the removal of the zero-COVID policies starts to flow through their economy. This should help farmgate returns in the latter part of 2023.”And we are now learning to manage the risk posed by COVID-19 without using lockdowns.