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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Energy – Oil near five-month high The oil market remains on edge with the conflict between Israel and Iran entering its sixth day. Prices have rallied around 10% since Israel started its attack on Iran last week and are now close to a five-month high after US President Trump met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss the escalating conflict, sparking speculation that the US could be preparing to join the attack.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Oil prices are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran. His comments, which stood in contrast with previous optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict wouldn’t escalate into a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, renewed volatility in financial markets. On Monday, there were reports that Iran had signalled that it wanted to deescalate hostilities with Israel and was willing to restart nuclear talks as long as the US doesn’t join the Israeli attack.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes. The attack triggered a powerful explosion and fire at the onshore Phase 14 gas processing plant and forced the shutdown of a production platform at the South Pars field, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – Trade talk optimism supports market Oil prices firmed yesterday, a trend that continued in early morning trading today. Trade talks between the US and China appear to be progressing, with discussions set to continue today. The US also appears willing to ease some tech export restrictions in return for China easing limits on rare earth exports. This is providing some support to the market.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market strengthened over the last week thanks to a variety of global events, with the ICE Brent Aug-25 contract settling almost 5.9% higher. Canadian wildfires provided support, while the market is digesting announced supply hikes for July from OPEC+. The US jobs report for May on Friday also provided a boost. Meanwhile, the US and China are holding their second round of trade talks in London today.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey
President Trump hopes the increased levies on aluminium will protect margins for domestic mills and spur investment in new production capacity. The tariffs will not apply to imports from the UK, which will remain at 25%, to allow for negotiations on new tariffs or quotas by the 9 July deadline. The doubling of tariffs has come after a federal court struck down some of Trump’s other duties, which were put in place under an emergency law. His tariffs on metals were not subject to that ruling.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
ICE Brent hit its highest level since mid-May yesterday, with the front-month contract trading just shy of US$66/bbl. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, provided a boost to prices. This, at a time when the market is digesting the announced OPEC+ July supply hike. There continue to be clear signs of tightness in the spot oil market as we move closer towards the Northern hemisphere summer. Both Brent and WTI prompt timespreads strengthened recently, while trading is in deep backwardation.
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3 weeks ago | 
flipboard.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
1 day agoLondon CNN — President Donald Trump’s trade war will wreak greater economic damage than previously expected, both in the United States and everywhere else, according to new forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In a report Tuesday, the group of 38 mostly wealthy …
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of expectations all provided a boost. The strength continued into early morning trading today. The move higher in flat price has been accompanied by a strengthening in the prompt ICE Brent timepsread. It’s trading at a backwardation of more than US$0.70/bbl, up from a little over the US$0.30/bbl level in early May.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases. The latest increase is in line with our expectations. We’re also assuming that OPEC+ will continue with these large supply hikes.
