Ewa Manthey

4 days ago | think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey

President Trump hopes the increased levies on aluminium will protect margins for domestic mills and spur investment in new production capacity. The tariffs will not apply to imports from the UK, which will remain at 25%, to allow for negotiations on new tariffs or quotas by the 9 July deadline. The doubling of tariffs has come after a federal court struck down some of Trump’s other duties, which were put in place under an emergency law. His tariffs on metals were not subject to that ruling.

4 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

ICE Brent hit its highest level since mid-May yesterday, with the front-month contract trading just shy of US$66/bbl. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, provided a boost to prices. This, at a time when the market is digesting the announced OPEC+ July supply hike. There continue to be clear signs of tightness in the spot oil market as we move closer towards the Northern hemisphere summer. Both Brent and WTI prompt timespreads strengthened recently, while trading is in deep backwardation.

4 days ago | flipboard.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

1 day agoLondon CNN — President Donald Trump’s trade war will wreak greater economic damage than previously expected, both in the United States and everywhere else, according to new forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In a report Tuesday, the group of 38 mostly wealthy …

5 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of expectations all provided a boost. The strength continued into early morning trading today. The move higher in flat price has been accompanied by a strengthening in the prompt ICE Brent timepsread. It’s trading at a backwardation of more than US$0.70/bbl, up from a little over the US$0.30/bbl level in early May.

6 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

Energy – OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases. The latest increase is in line with our expectations. We’re also assuming that OPEC+ will continue with these large supply hikes.