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The Commodities Feed: The door opens for tariff de-escalation

2 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

Oil rebounded yesterday along with other risk assets. ICE Brent settled almost 1.8% higher on the day after President Trump calmed concerns over the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position. Trump stated he has no intention of firing Powell. In addition, comments from both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on tariffs opened the door for an easing of tensions between the US and China.
The Commodities Feed: Gold hits fresh record high

3 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

Metals -- Gold surges to fresh record high Gold surged to new record highs as President Trump threatened to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets. Spot gold settled more than 2.9% higher yesterday. The strength has continued in early morning trading today, with prices briefly breaking above US$3,440/oz. This comes as Trump ratchets up pressure on Powell to ease monetary policy, raising concerns about Fed independence.
FX Daily: Forget the old central bank currency link

1 week ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner

We have published our monthly FX update – FX Talking: "You wanted a weaker dollar"The next FX Daily will be published on Tuesday, 22 April. USD: Powell rejects rescuer role Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since “liberation day” yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish. Markets had leaned towards the Trump-backed narrative that the Fed would come to the rescue with rate cuts despite inflation uncertainty.
THINK Ahead: The IMF’s high wire act

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

THINK Ahead It’s been six months since the great and the good of the finance world last met in Washington to chew on lukewarm canapes and sip decidedly average Champagne. I’m talking about the IMF’s annual meetings and, yes, maybe I’m still slightly bitter that I didn’t get the invite…Back then, the talk of the town was Donald Trump, whether he would win November’s election, and if he did, what would come first: tax cuts or tariffs? Well, I think we have our answer.
UK inflation set to rise this year despite lower-than-expected March data

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith

At 2.6%, March’s headline UK inflation reading is likely to be the lowest we’ll see for some time. Household energy bills have generally been a net drag on overall inflation, a legacy of the steep falls in natural gas prices we saw after the 2022 spike. But as of April, that will no longer be the case. Those energy bills will be contributing 0.8ppt more towards April’s annual CPI figure than they did in March. Water bills have risen sharply this month, too.
Bank of Canada pause shouldn’t last long

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Francesco Pesole

A great focus on uncertainty by the BoC The Bank of Canada has left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75% despite CPI coming in softer yesterday and anxiety over the economic impact from tariffs. The market had been pricing around a one-third chance of a 25bp cut while economists saw it closer to being a coin toss with 15 banks, including ourselves, favouring 'no change' and 14 expecting a 25bp cut.
US retail sales bounce as savvy consumers buy ahead of tariffs

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley

US retail sales jumped 1.4% month-on-month in March, exactly in line with consensus. It's clear from high frequency reports that many consumers in the market for 'big ticket' imported items brought forward their purchases to get ahead of feared tariffs. We already knew that the volume of auto sales surged nearly 11% last month and this translated into a 5.3% MoM jump in value of sales in today’s report.
Europe’s job market is increasingly AI-ready

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Bert Colijn |Carsten Brzeski

With low growth and ageing societies, boosting productivity growth is key to economic prosperity in the eurozone in the years ahead. And that’s where AI comes in. Productivity has declined by 1.6% since the third quarter of 2022. This has come with a tight labour market by historical standards, as unemployment has dropped to the historical low of 6.1%. And with populations ageing, the chances of growth in the active population are small.
FX Daily: Updates on repatriation, China UST holdings and the Fed

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |Francesco Pesole |František Táborský

Traded levels of FX volatility have edged down a little, but they're not collapsing. And equally, the dollar has been slow to reclaim any of its recent losses even as equity markets have stabilised. Looking back at last week, we think most asset classes reacted as they should have to the trade shock – apart from Treasuries. Here, as the dust settles, it looks as though we've seen an unwind of highly leveraged long positions as hedge funds wagered on reforms to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio.
Listen: Credit caught in the tariff turmoil

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Rebecca Byrne |Timothy Rahill

President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on 2 April, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary, have left investors deeply unsettled. While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.