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The Commodities Feed: Iranian sanctions threat boosts oil

2 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

Energy – Iranian sanctions ICE Brent rallied by almost 2.6% yesterday, reaching its highest since late April. A weaker USD following a cooler-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) provided some tailwinds to the oil market. However, the key catalyst is the threat of further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Yesterday, the US Treasury sanctioned a network that facilitates shipments of Iranian crude oil to China.
The Commodities Feed: Bearish supply outlook vs improved sentiment

3 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey

Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA provided the first forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year. It was fairly bearish for corn and wheat, while constructive for soybeans. For corn, the USDA expects US production to rise significantly 6.4% YoY to 15.8b bushels in 2025/26, thanks to improved yields and higher acreage. As a result, US ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to rise to 1,800m bushels, up from 1,415m bushels at the end of 2024/25.
Commodities Feed: Risk on after US and China lower tariffs

4 days ago | think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson

Metals – Copper jumps on trade optimism Copper and other industrial metals rose this morning, with easing trade tensions giving metals markets a boost. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple.
Industrial metals breathe a sigh of relief after China-US trade truce

4 days ago | think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey

Copper was up around 1% in Monday afternoon trading and aluminium was almost 3% higher, while gold lost more than 2% after the US and China said they will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, with the US reducing its levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China lowering its duties on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple.
THINK Ahead: Imagine what could go wrong…

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Valentin Tataru

What could go wrong? Folks, let me tell you, it’s huge. A biggly, very beautiful thing, announced just this Thursday. Some great people from great nations involved. Tremendous numbers, some say the best numbers we’ve ever seen; it’s incredible. I’m referring, of course, to the latest ING Monthly, hot off the press this week, containing all our new forecasts. Here are the headlines:No US or eurozone recession, though both are headed for stagnation.
Carsten: The world is caught like a deer in the headlights

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

Markets have calmed after Trump's tariff storm, but don't be mistaken; we are far from being back to normal. ING's Carsten Brzeski says there's a sense that the world is caught like a deer in the headlights, not sure what to do and terrified of what might be about to hit it. Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
FX Daily: Market-pleasing Trump is helping the dollar

1 week ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner

It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The next big catalyst for the dollar will be the outcome of initial US-China trade talks, but US equities have already drawn some support from US President Donald Trump’s more upbeat tone on upcoming negotiations with Beijing and the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday.
US sentiment slump means trade deals can’t come quickly enough

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley

Sentiment sours on trade and inflation uncertainty US President Donald Trump’s decision to rewrite the rules on trade is having a clear impact, not just on trade partners, but on the US economy too. First quarter US GDP was dragged down by a surge in imports as US companies sought to bring as much product in as possible ahead of the imposition of tariffs.
Rates Spark: Market discount shifts to un-discounting some recession risks

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Padhraic Garvey |Michiel Tukker

The Bank of England made its cut, as was already widely expected, but the communication did not offer the dovish flavour markets were looking for. Sterling rates had turned more dovish in the wake of 'Liberation Day' and followed US rates lower. The script of the Bank, however, did not move away from its “gradual and careful” approach and the baseline therefore remains cuts at a quarterly pace. Markets still price in a 25% rate cut at the June meeting, but we think the next cut will have to wait.
The UK is relying on EU trade reset to bolster its public finances

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith

The UK is seeking to secure a number of deals Trade deals are like buses. You don’t see one for weeks, then two – maybe even three – come along at once. The UK and India have, after years of talks, agreed a deal that will reduce tariffs for some UK-made goods in exchange for tax concessions on Indian workers moving to Britain, amongst other things.