ING Think

2 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Bert Colijn |Francesco Pesole |Rebecca Byrne

A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet the bombing campaigns are over, and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day, will remain undisturbed. The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year. But is the crisis really over?

5 days ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |Warren Patterson |Francesco Pesole |James Knightley

On Sunday morning, the conflict in the Middle East escalated further with the US bombing three nuclear facilities in Iran. US President Donald Trump called the strikes “very successful” and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that the US had “obliterated” the facilities, while Iran reported only limited damage. This leaves us with the all-too-familiar sense that we understand far less than we thought we did this morning.

5 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson

Moving closer towards the worst-case scenario The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend increased supply risks significantly for the oil and LNG market. The big question now is how Iran responds. Clearly, a major risk for the oil market is Iran now attempting to disrupt shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial choke point for global oil and LNG flows, with a quarter of seaborne oil trade moving through the strait.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |David Havrlant

THINK Ahead in developed markets United States Powell's testimony (Tues): The main event will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony to Congress. In a highly partisan environment, he will face criticism from certain members of the Republican Party for not cutting interest rates, aligning with the views of President Trump.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |Francesco Pesole

Does that mean faster rate cuts? For now, we think it’s unlikely. Yes, three out of nine officials voted for an immediate rate cut this time. Investors may well take that as a hint that the tide is turning on the committee. But past experience has shown that the vote split contains few useful signals. December’s meeting saw a similar 6-3 vote, yet heralded little change in the Bank’s overall stance. The hawks, meanwhile, will also have a beady eye on oil prices.