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4 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
ICE Brent hit its highest level since mid-May yesterday, with the front-month contract trading just shy of US$66/bbl. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, provided a boost to prices. This, at a time when the market is digesting the announced OPEC+ July supply hike. There continue to be clear signs of tightness in the spot oil market as we move closer towards the Northern hemisphere summer. Both Brent and WTI prompt timespreads strengthened recently, while trading is in deep backwardation.
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4 days ago | 
flipboard.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
1 day agoLondon CNN — President Donald Trump’s trade war will wreak greater economic damage than previously expected, both in the United States and everywhere else, according to new forecasts by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. In a report Tuesday, the group of 38 mostly wealthy …
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5 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market surged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent hitting US$65.76/bbl at one stage, as USD weakness, rising geopolitical risks and possibly a supply hike from OPEC+ that fell short of expectations all provided a boost. The strength continued into early morning trading today. The move higher in flat price has been accompanied by a strengthening in the prompt ICE Brent timepsread. It’s trading at a backwardation of more than US$0.70/bbl, up from a little over the US$0.30/bbl level in early May.
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6 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – OPEC+ supply increase in line with our expectations OPEC+ agreed to another large supply hike over the weekend, increasing it by 411k b/d effective July. The increase is similar to those in May and June. By the end of July, the group will have brought back more than 60% of the 2.2m b/d worth of planned supply increases. The latest increase is in line with our expectations. We’re also assuming that OPEC+ will continue with these large supply hikes.
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1 week ago | 
flipboard.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The Commodities Feed: Court ruling against US tariffs pushes oil higherEnergy – Sentiment improves for now Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against Russia increase, while the market appears to be …
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – Sentiment improves for now Oil markets strengthened yesterday as sanction risks against Russia increase, while the market appears to be losing hope that we’ll see a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. This might’ve led to the eventual lifting of oil sanctions. The market is also rising on news that the US Court of International Trade ruled President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs overstepped his authority, blocking the levies.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy- Sanction risks grow Crude oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with USD strength providing some headwinds for the market. Participants are taking a wait-and-see approach to Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, when members will decide on July output levels. The meeting, originally scheduled for Sunday, has reportedly been brought forward.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market is trading firmer this morning after President Trump said he would delay the deadline for tariffs on EU goods until 9 July. This is after announcing late last week that the US would impose 50% tariffs starting 1 June. The extension comes after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Meanwhile, Russia stepped up its attacks on Ukraine, prompting Trump to say that he’s considering sanctions against Moscow, which could put Russian energy flows at risk.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market is under renewed pressure as noise builds around what OPEC+ will do with their July output levels. There are reports suggesting the group is considering another large supply increase, similar to those in May and June output. This would cement the shift in policy from the group -- moving from defending prices to defending market share. In our balance sheet, we assume that OPEC+ will go ahead with a 411k b/d supply increase for July.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
The oil market spiked in early morning trading on media reports suggesting that Israel could be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The news, based on US intelligence, may signal a significant escalation, prompting the oil market to price in a larger geopolitical risk premium for the region. Such an escalation would not only put Iranian supply at risk, but also in large parts of the broader region.
