-
2 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – Iranian sanctions ICE Brent rallied by almost 2.6% yesterday, reaching its highest since late April. A weaker USD following a cooler-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) provided some tailwinds to the oil market. However, the key catalyst is the threat of further sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Yesterday, the US Treasury sanctioned a network that facilitates shipments of Iranian crude oil to China.
-
3 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA provided the first forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year. It was fairly bearish for corn and wheat, while constructive for soybeans. For corn, the USDA expects US production to rise significantly 6.4% YoY to 15.8b bushels in 2025/26, thanks to improved yields and higher acreage. As a result, US ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast to rise to 1,800m bushels, up from 1,415m bushels at the end of 2024/25.
-
4 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Metals – Copper jumps on trade optimism Copper and other industrial metals rose this morning, with easing trade tensions giving metals markets a boost. At a briefing following the talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said neither nation wanted their economies to decouple.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
OPEC+ policy shift Demand concerns induced by tariff uncertainty have only been compounded by a shift in OPEC+ policy, which has weighed heavily on oil prices. OPEC+ appears to be in the process of moving away from defending prices towards defending market share. The group has announced two larger-than-scheduled supply increases for May and June. OPEC+ is set to increase supply by 411k b/d in both May and June.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
It was a choppy session for the oil market yesterday. Initially, Brent rallied amid growing hopes of de-escalation in trade tensions between China and the US, with talks set to start this weekend. However, the market came under pressure later in the day after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The Fed signalled that rates will likely remain on hold until the effects of tariffs become clearer. This boosted the USD, which added to headwinds facing the broader commodity markets.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy: US-China trade talk hopes push oil higher News that the US and China will start trade talks this weekend has Brent crude trading higher, extending a relief rally in oil yesterday. Talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions. Yet while negotiations would help improve sentiment in the oil market, we’ll need to see significant progress on lowering tariffs to improve the demand outlook.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
OPEC+ supply increase Nearly five years ago, the Saudi Energy Minister said speculators need to “watch out” and threatened to leave them “ouching like hell”. Well, the target appears to have shifted from speculators to the OPEC+ alliance. The Saudis are the driving force behind larger-than-scheduled supply increases to punish members who’ve repeatedly produced above their targets.
-
2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Oil trading was volatile this morning as fresh sanctions threats by the US against Iranian flows were partially offset by a potential supply hike from OPEC+. US President Donald Trump said that any country buying oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be subject to secondary sanctions immediately. Preliminary OPEC production numbers for April are starting to come through. Bloomberg’s OPEC survey shows that the group’s production fell by 200k b/d month-on-month to 27.24m b/d last month.
-
2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
In its latest forecasts, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the global copper market to see a supply surplus of 289kt in 2025, largely on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, compared to the 194kt of surplus projected earlier and 138kt of surplus seen last year. However, the surplus is expected to ease slightly to 209kt in 2026 amid a continued demand recovery.
-
2 weeks ago | 
flipboard.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
1 hour agoPakistan Shoots Down Indian Spy Drone in Kashmir, State TV SaysFollow Bloomberg India on WhatsApp for exclusive content and analysis on what billionaires, businesses and markets are doing. Sign up here. Pakistan’s …9 hours agoElon Musk gets more bad news as rival launches the anti-TeslaAnother titan of industry is gunning hard for Musk's market share.
