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2 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Oil rebounded yesterday along with other risk assets. ICE Brent settled almost 1.8% higher on the day after President Trump calmed concerns over the future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s position. Trump stated he has no intention of firing Powell. In addition, comments from both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on tariffs opened the door for an easing of tensions between the US and China.
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3 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Metals -- Gold surges to fresh record high Gold surged to new record highs as President Trump threatened to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking a flight to safe-haven assets. Spot gold settled more than 2.9% higher yesterday. The strength has continued in early morning trading today, with prices briefly breaking above US$3,440/oz. This comes as Trump ratchets up pressure on Powell to ease monetary policy, raising concerns about Fed independence.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Oil market hit with demand uncertainty and stronger supply The oil market is under significant pressure amid trade tensions. ICE Brent briefly broke below US$60/bbl last week, trading at the lowest levels since February 2021. While the Trump administration put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners, the baseline 10% tariff remains, and the tit-for-tat on tariffs between the US and China has escalated. It’s unclear where this escalation is going.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Oil prices rose marginally higher yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran. Clearly, the market is more focused on tariffs and what they mean for oil demand. Chinese trade data released yesterday was fairly strong when it comes to oil.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy – Tariff relief vs Iranian talks The oil market is quiet in early morning trading today, after settling lower for a second consecutive week last week. News that the Trump administration is offering tariff exemptions on certain electronics products initially supported risk assets. Since then, uncertainty returned as President Trump suggested exemptions are only temporary -- and that other more specific tariffs could be introduced in due course.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Oil prices rallied along with risk assets yesterday after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on most trading partners, at least those that haven’t retaliated yet. This puts tariffs back to the baseline 10%. However, there was no relief for China. The US increased tariffs to 125% after China raised retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 84%. While the pause offers some relief to markets, there’s still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Energy -Tariff tensions build Oil prices witnessed something of a relief rally this morning. Yet risks are still skewed to the downside as President Trump threatens an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if it doesn’t lift its 34% retaliatory tariff by Tuesday. It's unlikely that China will reverse the policy. As such, we’re likely to see further escalation, which will only exacerbate growth concerns and worries over oil demand.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Oil prices have had their worst week since October 2023, with risk assets getting hit by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the retaliation we have started to see towards them. China retaliated on Friday with a 34% tariff on all imports from the US. ICE Brent settled almost 11% lower last week to trade down to the mid-$60s. This weakness has only continued in early morning trading today.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
The move leaves the oil balance better supplied over the second quarter, with 134k b/d of additional supply compared to previous expectations. However, there is still uncertainty around this. It is unclear what the group decides to do with production from June onwards. We will have to wait until early May for a decision on this. In our forecast, we assume the group will look to keep output steady over June and July and then continue with its gradual unwinding from August onwards.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Ewa Manthey
Copper and other industrial metals slumped on Thursday amid concerns about how Trump’s latest tariffs threaten the global growth outlook. Although all base and precious metals, including gold, were exempted from the new levies, concerns about the latest tariffs hurting demand for raw materials is weighing on the sentiment. A global trade war is bearish for copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth.
