-
2 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Bert Colijn |Francesco Pesole |Rebecca Byrne
A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet the bombing campaigns are over, and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day, will remain undisturbed. The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year. But is the crisis really over?
-
5 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |Warren Patterson |Francesco Pesole |James Knightley
On Sunday morning, the conflict in the Middle East escalated further with the US bombing three nuclear facilities in Iran. US President Donald Trump called the strikes “very successful” and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that the US had “obliterated” the facilities, while Iran reported only limited damage. This leaves us with the all-too-familiar sense that we understand far less than we thought we did this morning.
-
5 days ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
Moving closer towards the worst-case scenario The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend increased supply risks significantly for the oil and LNG market. The big question now is how Iran responds. Clearly, a major risk for the oil market is Iran now attempting to disrupt shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial choke point for global oil and LNG flows, with a quarter of seaborne oil trade moving through the strait.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Energy – Oil near five-month high The oil market remains on edge with the conflict between Israel and Iran entering its sixth day. Prices have rallied around 10% since Israel started its attack on Iran last week and are now close to a five-month high after US President Trump met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss the escalating conflict, sparking speculation that the US could be preparing to join the attack.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Oil prices are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran. His comments, which stood in contrast with previous optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict wouldn’t escalate into a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, renewed volatility in financial markets. On Monday, there were reports that Iran had signalled that it wanted to deescalate hostilities with Israel and was willing to restart nuclear talks as long as the US doesn’t join the Israeli attack.
-
1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Ewa Manthey |Warren Patterson
Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes. The attack triggered a powerful explosion and fire at the onshore Phase 14 gas processing plant and forced the shutdown of a production platform at the South Pars field, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
-
2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |James Smith |James Knightley |Peter Vanden Houte
What’s happened Israel has launched coordinated strikes on Iran’s primary nuclear and ballistic missile facilities, as well as targeting senior IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists. In response, Iran has retaliated with approximately 100 drones aimed at Israeli territory and marking a major escalation in regional hostilities. Israel has declared a state of emergency, framing the strikes as pre-emptive and warning of further operations.
-
2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
Israel has started conducting strikes against both Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets. These attacks come at a time when the US and Iran are holding ongoing nuclear talks. Admittedly, there appeared to be little progress in these discussions recently, with both sides far apart. However, talks were set to continue this weekend. After these latest developments, it’s not clear if they will still go ahead.
-
2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Warren Patterson
OPEC+ goes with another large supply hike Despite OPEC+ originally announcing three larger-than-expected supply hikes this year (the latest being a 411k b/d increase for July), which have essentially cemented the shift in the group’s output policy, oil prices have held up relatively well. This is due to a flare-up in geopolitical risks, while the oil market remains tight, particularly in the spot physical market.
-
2 weeks ago | 
fxstreet.com | Warren Patterson
The Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to fall next year. Meanwhile, the European Commission is proposing a ban on refined product imports made from Russian crude oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its US crude oil production estimates downward for 2026. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday, the EIA said output would decline by 50k b/d year on year in 2026 to 13.37m b/d.
