Hermann Lotze-Campen

Jan 3, 2025 | nature.com | David Chen |Benjamin Leon Bodirsky |Xiaoxi Wang |Jiaqi Xuan |Jan Dietrich |Alexander Popp | +1 more

Agricultural production costs represent less than half of total food prices for higher-income countries and will likely further decrease globally. Added-value components such as transport, processing, marketing and catering show increasing importance in food value chains, especially as countries undergo a nutrition transition towards more complex and industrial food systems. Here, using a combined statistical and process-based modelling framework, we derive and project the value-added component of food prices for 136 countries and 11 different food groups, for food-at-home and food-away-from-home. We identify the declining but differentiated producer share in consumer food prices across food products, and provide scenarios of future consumer prices under a business-as-usual as well as climate mitigation scenarios. Food price increases from policies targeting agricultural producers, such as greenhouse gas taxes, are not as stark when transmitted to consumers owing to higher value added in higher-income countries, while a pronounced effect remains in lower-income countries, even in coming decades. The future of food prices is uncertain yet key for food security and climate mitigation policies. This study estimates future food prices for 136 countries and 11 distinct food groups, showing that future food prices will become less sensitive to agricultural market dynamics and land-based mitigation policies, given the global transition towards more complex and industrial food systems.

May 7, 2024 | iopscience.iop.org | Abhijeet Mishra |Florian Humpenöder |Felicitas Beier |Hermann Lotze-Campen

The world has lost one-third of its forest, an area approximately the size of the USA, China and India combined (ca. 2000 Mha) compared to 10 000 years ago [1–3]. In the past three decades (1990 to 2020), the net global forest area loss was 178 Mha (420 Mha deforestation and 242 Mha forest expansion) [4].

Aug 10, 2023 | nature.com | Benjamin Leon Bodirsky |Kristine Karstens |David Chen |Christoph Müller |Jonas Jägermeyr |Christian Folberth | +9 more

MAgPIE modelThe MAgPIE land system modeling framework (Version 4.4.0) is an open-source, recursive dynamic global partial equilibrium model30,31 for the agricultural, forestry, and other landuse (AFOLU) sectors. The model minimizes the overall AFOLU costs based on spatially-explicit agricultural productivity values, the demand for agriculturally-based food, feed and material demand, and international trade30,50.