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Jan 17, 2025 | 
agweb.com | Rhonda Brooks |Jerry Gulke |Michelle Rook |Chip Flory
In early January, Illinois crop budgets were revised for 2024. Farmers are predicted to lose $135 to $160 per acre for corn and $20 to $107 per acre for soybeans. What’s a farmer to do when news is a punch in the gut?
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Nov 22, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jim Wiesemeyer |Jerry Gulke |Chip Flory |Michelle Rook
Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) has been offered the position of Secretary of Agriculture by President-elect Donald Trump. This information has been reported by multiple sources. Loeffler, who previously represented Georgia in the Senate, is also co-chairing Trump’s inaugural committee, indicating her significant involvement in the new administration’s activities.
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Sep 27, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
Within the word government is the word “govern.” There are various definitions of govern, one being “to control and direct the public business of a country, city, group of people, etc.,” which best defines the U.S. government’s (Department of Agriculture) involvement in our business of the biofuels industry. The government’s ability to influence is undeniable.
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Aug 2, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
A couple decades ago I had the privilege to speak at the USDA Forum in Washington, D.C., on risk management. Little did I realize my version of risk management did not jive with RMA, which was beginning to implement crop insurance. A time thereafter I also testified in Congress on the same subject as it pertained to which crops would be covered and indemnities. Since then, RMA has increased its presence and risk management, as I define it, seemed to never be further apart.
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May 15, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
about 14 months AGO we visited the wheat outlook, and I questioned if wheat could succumb to a total reset, it could happen to any commodity. At that time, based on the leading futures contract, corn was trading near $6.50, soybeans were at $15.50, and Chicago wheat was $7.50. In early 2023 the monthly corn chart showed a long-term risk of $4.50.
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Mar 26, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
My monthly columns in the past 15 months began with what a “black swan” event would look like for corn and later a reset(s) of ag prices that has evolved into my worst concern: producing too much of everything and potentially having an oversupply for more years. An analysis of the equities, housing and commodities chart leads to the conclusion things are out of whack. The reset the Federal Reserve desires is not complete.
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Jan 12, 2024 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
The February USDA Annual Outlook Conference will give a reality update on 2024 planted acres and supply and demand. USDA’s current outlook is based on economic models from late 2022. Soybean acres are expected to increase 3.4 million acres at the expense of corn (expected down 3.1), wheat and other acres.
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Dec 11, 2023 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke |Austin Schroeder
Flashback to Previous El Niño Trends With rapidly changing market conditions, Jerry Gulke says it pays to look at historical precedents. (Lori Hays / Storyset) The ink was barely dry on last month’s column on the effects of El Niño on South American weather before a 70¢ weather rally ensued. Media hype was that it was too soon to be concerned about weather in South America, but price is discovered in the futures markets and looks ahead to discount what-if scenarios.
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Nov 14, 2023 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke
A rebound in South American crops has been anticipated by traders for a long time. The focus for months has been the “big” crop coming in the southern hemisphere and the competition U.S. soybean farmers could suffer. Recent WASDE reports had assumed another record Brazilian soybean crop and Argentina returning to normal, but the El Niño weather pattern might have something to say about that. El Niño causes the waters of the Pacific Ocean to warm and normally has an impact on the world’s climate.
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Oct 3, 2023 | 
agweb.com | Jerry Gulke |Stephanie Mercier |Stéphanie Mercier |Jon Scheve
The necessity for managing price risk in the ag sector, as well as non-ag, is likely coming into vogue again. The two-year bull market for grains ended spring 2022 with collapses from lofty levels in $8 corn, soybeans over $17 and Chicago wheat over $13. The supply-driven bull markets that began in September 2020 for grains have seen gains reset back to those levels. Soybeans have reset 50% of that price move.
