Kinga Havasi

1 month ago | think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský

Our call We still see no room for the Hungarian central bank to ease monetary policy in the short term. In our view, the Monetary Council – led by Governor Mihály Varga for the first time – will likely leave the interest rate complex unchanged at the 25 March meeting. This means that the key rate remains at 6.50% with a +/- 100bp interest rate corridor, which is a high conviction call from our side.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |František Táborský |Kinga Havasi

Hungary: At a glance We have made only minor changes to our GDP forecast for 2025, which we see at 1.9%, but the structure has been substantially revised. High-frequency data has shown a mixed start to the year for Hungary, with the overall tone tending towards softness. Industry may continue to be a drag on growth while rising inflation threatens to change the fortunes of retail sales. The nervousness in business confidence has led us to revise up our unemployment rate forecast.

2 months ago | think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský

The central bank left rates unchanged in January Macro picture deteriorates due to high inflation Market sentiment improves but can’t counterbalance the inflation outlook risks Our call Our market views The central bank left rates unchanged in January As expected, the National Bank of Hungary maintained its key interest rate at 6.50% in January.

2 months ago | think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |František Táborský |Kinga Havasi

Hungary: At a glance The dull GDP growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024 means that the carry-over effect will be virtually zero in 2025. With all the local and global headwinds, we see 2% GDP growth as the base case for Hungary. There are plenty of headwinds. Consumer and business confidence are both moving in the wrong direction, reducing the potential for a quick and strong turnaround in the economy.

2 months ago | think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský

6.50% Unchanged As expected Interest rates unchanged for four months In our NBH preview, we emphasised that rising inflation expectations among both households and businesses argue for a hawkish hold.