František Táborský

4 days ago | think.ing.com | Francesco Pesole |František Táborský |Chris Turner

USD: Dollar rebounds, trade and ISM in focus The dollar showed resilience despite the late-session bounce in Treasury yields, supported by strong April JOLTS job openings. That said, the JOLTS data adds little to the overall jobs picture: the labour market remains tight, while declining quits suggest wage growth is easing.

5 days ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner

USD: Strategic USD shorts quickly re-emerge The dollar’s slide accelerated at the start of the week, driven by two main factors: growing trade uncertainty and rising concerns from bond vigilantes over the US deficit. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing surveys delivered a negative surprise, reversing the recent trend of resilient US data.

6 days ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole

Global equity markets and the dollar start the week a little softer as trade tensions between the US and China start to reappear. It's not quite fair to say that the US-China trade deal reached in Geneva last month is unravelling, but both sides clearly seem frustrated. Social media posts from US President Donald Trump on Friday and comments made in the Chinese state media today both express frustration that trade commitments have not been adhered to.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole

USD: April spending and inflation data in focus Yesterday's dollar rally didn't last long. It quickly became clear that the Trump administration would pursue other trade laws to enact its tariffs, and later, the US Court of Appeals proposed a delay in the original court ruling that tariffs were illegal. The suggestion now is that a further presentation of evidence could last up until 9 June in the appeals court. What weighed on the dollar more yesterday seemed to be the US macro data.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |Francesco Pesole |František Táborský

FX markets should focus on two themes today: the US Court of International Trade ruling that the majority of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, and insights from the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting, which suggest that dollar selling in April was driven by hedging rather than outright sales of US assets. On the former, the dollar has rallied around 0.5/0.7% in Asia on the view that Trump may be more constrained in his trade war.