František Táborský

6 days ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner

It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The next big catalyst for the dollar will be the outcome of initial US-China trade talks, but US equities have already drawn some support from US President Donald Trump’s more upbeat tone on upcoming negotiations with Beijing and the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz

Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |Francesco Pesole |František Táborský

Following a social media post from President Trump last night that a major trade deal would be announced at 16CET/10ET today, speculation is rife that it will be a US-UK agreement. While US-UK trade relations are not usually a material driver of global financial markets, today's deal may have more impact than usual. In focus will primarily be whether the 10% baseline US tariffs in place under the current 'paused' conditions can be negotiated away.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský

Rate cut when headline inflation is below target The new CNB forecast accommodates one more cut Fading investments and a lack of courage threaten future growth Our market views Rate cut when headline inflation is below target The Czech base rate was reduced by 25bp to 3.5%, and the cutting cycle seems to be approaching its final destination in the current conditions.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole

Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%. Remember that in April, the defensive yen and Swiss franc currencies were the big beneficiaries of 'reciprocal' tariffs and the uniform sell-off in US asset markets. In theory, then, de-escalation should see USD/JPY and USD/CHF lead the recovery.