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2 days ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Is that your final answer? This week, we aired our very own version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”. Ok, maybe it wasn’t quite called that. Mainly because we didn’t have a million pounds to give away (maybe next time, ING bosses?). But our central bank webinar did have “50:50”, which, in case you hadn’t realised, is how we economists forecast virtually everything. And it even had a phone-a-friend. Well, it had Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley. And they were both on the phone.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |František Táborský
6.50% Unchanged As expected ING’s macro view: The risk-reward ratio favours holding rates for a longer period While the constant deterioration of the economic outlook would normally call for some monetary easing, we disagree with the recent market pricing.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
I kid you not, the draft of this week’s article started with the line “Good news, folks, no tariff chat this week!”. Sadly, that was before the President threatened 25% tariffs on iPhones and 50% on everything from the EU. Doh! Investors have found a new thing to worry about... I’ll stick to my word, though, because if tariffs weren’t enough, this week investors found yet another thing to worry about: the US deficit.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Wanted! A superhero to save the markets Who is going to save the US stock market? I’ll admit, it’s not exactly the making of a Hollywood blockbuster. And if it was, the theme tune would presumably be played by a single, very tiny violin. Anyway, markets think they know the answer: Jerome Powell. As is so often the case when stocks wobble, investors are shining the proverbial bat signal at the night sky and waiting for their superhero to calm things down.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský
Our call We still see no room for the Hungarian central bank to ease monetary policy in the short term. In our view, the Monetary Council – led by Governor Mihály Varga for the first time – will likely leave the interest rate complex unchanged at the 25 March meeting. This means that the key rate remains at 6.50% with a +/- 100bp interest rate corridor, which is a high conviction call from our side.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Europe's cold April shower Are we all becoming too optimistic about Europe? Bet you didn’t expect to see those eight words printed this year, did you? Neither did I, if I’m honest. We European economists don’t know what to do with ourselves; we simply aren’t programmed for these levels of unalloyed positivity. But two things can be true at once. The wave of fiscal activism unleashed by Germany’s spending splurge could genuinely lift the continent out of its decade-long malaise.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |František Táborský |Kinga Havasi
Hungary: At a glance We have made only minor changes to our GDP forecast for 2025, which we see at 1.9%, but the structure has been substantially revised. High-frequency data has shown a mixed start to the year for Hungary, with the overall tone tending towards softness. Industry may continue to be a drag on growth while rising inflation threatens to change the fortunes of retail sales. The nervousness in business confidence has led us to revise up our unemployment rate forecast.
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Mar 7, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
The week the Transatlantic tables turned For financial markets, this was the week where everything turned on its head. US economic exceptionalism – for weeks a key market driver – is under serious question. And Europe may just have found a way out of its seemingly endless doom-loop. The result? The Euro is more than four percent stronger against the dollar versus a week ago. German bund yields are almost 40bp higher too. Yet history tells us that things rarely play out the way we expect.
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Feb 28, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant
THINK Ahead in developed markets United States (James Knightley) This week promises to be significant for the US, with potential trade tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada coming into effect while there are some very important data releases, including the February jobs report. President Trump has moved the date around, but at the time of writing trade tariffs are set to start from 4 March.
