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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Wanted! A superhero to save the markets Who is going to save the US stock market? I’ll admit, it’s not exactly the making of a Hollywood blockbuster. And if it was, the theme tune would presumably be played by a single, very tiny violin. Anyway, markets think they know the answer: Jerome Powell. As is so often the case when stocks wobble, investors are shining the proverbial bat signal at the night sky and waiting for their superhero to calm things down.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský
Our call We still see no room for the Hungarian central bank to ease monetary policy in the short term. In our view, the Monetary Council – led by Governor Mihály Varga for the first time – will likely leave the interest rate complex unchanged at the 25 March meeting. This means that the key rate remains at 6.50% with a +/- 100bp interest rate corridor, which is a high conviction call from our side.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Europe's cold April shower Are we all becoming too optimistic about Europe? Bet you didn’t expect to see those eight words printed this year, did you? Neither did I, if I’m honest. We European economists don’t know what to do with ourselves; we simply aren’t programmed for these levels of unalloyed positivity. But two things can be true at once. The wave of fiscal activism unleashed by Germany’s spending splurge could genuinely lift the continent out of its decade-long malaise.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |František Táborský |Kinga Havasi
Hungary: At a glance We have made only minor changes to our GDP forecast for 2025, which we see at 1.9%, but the structure has been substantially revised. High-frequency data has shown a mixed start to the year for Hungary, with the overall tone tending towards softness. Industry may continue to be a drag on growth while rising inflation threatens to change the fortunes of retail sales. The nervousness in business confidence has led us to revise up our unemployment rate forecast.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
The week the Transatlantic tables turned For financial markets, this was the week where everything turned on its head. US economic exceptionalism – for weeks a key market driver – is under serious question. And Europe may just have found a way out of its seemingly endless doom-loop. The result? The Euro is more than four percent stronger against the dollar versus a week ago. German bund yields are almost 40bp higher too. Yet history tells us that things rarely play out the way we expect.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant
THINK Ahead in developed markets United States (James Knightley) This week promises to be significant for the US, with potential trade tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada coming into effect while there are some very important data releases, including the February jobs report. President Trump has moved the date around, but at the time of writing trade tariffs are set to start from 4 March.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office will release the detailed GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 on 4 March, which will be a really important milestone. This will give us a better idea of whether there are signs of life in investment activity and whether the positive momentum in consumption has been maintained. If we see weak domestic demand, that could be another nail in the coffin of the government's plan for a flying start to 2025.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
More spending, more growth? Don’t be so sure Can you believe it's been five years since the Covid-19 pandemic kicked off? Those cringey TikTok dances and depressing Zoom ‘socials’ may seem like a distant past. But the seismic economic shifts? I suspect they’re still etched firmly into the memory of the world’s central bankers. Above all, the pandemic period reminded us just how powerful governments can be in driving economic growth, in a way that monetary policymakers can frankly only dream of.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Peter Virovacz |Kinga Havasi |František Táborský
The central bank left rates unchanged in January
Macro picture deteriorates due to high inflation
Market sentiment improves but can’t counterbalance the inflation outlook risks
Our call
Our market views
The central bank left rates unchanged in January As expected, the National Bank of Hungary maintained its key interest rate at 6.50% in January.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Somewhere on LinkedIn, a man celebrated his seventh work anniversary this week. It’s been a tough journey, notes the obligatory social media post. Pandemics, market chaos, bank collapses, he’d dealt with it all. He glosses over the fact that he and his boss don’t always see eye-to-eye anymore. But he ends by saying how the past year in his job was probably one of his best. The man, of course, is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. And no, I doubt he is a LinkedIn kind of guy either.
