Marten Scheffer

Nov 13, 2024 | nature.com | Marten Scheffer

AbstractRiver deltas are susceptible to rapid and irreversible regime shifts in channel morphodynamics, estuarine turbidity and coastal wetland state. In this Review, we discuss the tipping mechanisms and self-reinforcing feedbacks underlying these regime shifts. The propensity for tipping in deltas can be increased by climate and land-use changes, based on projections from published data from 47 deltas worldwide.

Nov 20, 2023 | pnas.org | Marten Scheffer |van Nes |Cory Clark |Lee Jussim Ph. D.

The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societiesContributed by Marten Scheffer; received December 9, 2022; accepted October 12, 2023; reviewed by Sean S. Downey, Robert D. Drennan, and Ann KinzigSignificanceHumans become increasingly fragile as they age. We show that something similar may happen to states, although for states, the risk of termination levels off as they grow older, allowing some to persist for millennia.

May 31, 2023 | nature.com | Johan Rockström |Joyeeta Gupta |Steven J. Lade |Jesse F. Abrams |Lauren S. Andersen |Xuemei Bennink Bai | +27 more

AbstractThe stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales.