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Jan 15, 2025 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This researched was published on January 25, 2025With the inauguration just a few days away, the incoming administration will soon have to transition from campaign rhetoric to the substance of economic policymaking. Casting the economy as a “disaster” was electorally effective, yet no freshly elected president has entered office with a stronger economic backdrop in recent history. President-elect Donald Trump has ambition to reshape the economy and a strong mandate to roll out new policies.
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Dec 2, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
Tariffs remain a cornerstone of President-elect Trump’s economic policy, as well as an all-purpose tool of geopolitical leverage (e.g. addressing illegal immigration) and for his domestic agenda (e.g. raising revenue for tax cuts). There is little clarity about protagonists, process, or priorities—and no certainty about policy. Yet executives and investors must grapple with the prospects for big swings in tariffs.
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Oct 23, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This researched was published on October 23, 2024The public debate about inflation has caught on to what economists have long known: Price change—aka inflation—and prices are not the same thing. Though inflation has fallen back sharply over the last two years, prices have not dropped—they have merely risen more slowly. And while politicians promise lower prices on the campaign trail, the dirty little secret is that nobody wants prices to fall across the board.
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Sep 3, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This researched was published on September 3, 2024Good macro—the confluence of tailwinds that played out over the past 40 years or so in the real economy, in finance, and in the global realm—has experienced significant stress in recent years.
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Aug 15, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This research was published on August 15, 2024In 1983, Wassily Leontief, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, concluded that human labour would go the way of the horse after the automobile arrived – “first diminished and then eliminated. Today, a new wave of doomsaying has emerged surrounding “technological unemployment” as AI, with its promise of business innovation, has marched to the forefront of economic debate.
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Jul 31, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This research was published on July 31, 2024The U.S. economy grew at a robust 2.8% in the second quarter, far faster than economists’ predictions of just 2%. The miss is reminiscent of a long losing streak for doomsaying about the U.S. economy. 2023 stood in the shadow of the “inevitable recession,” a spectacular forecasting failure that persisted in the face of remarkable economic strength.
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Jun 11, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This research was published on June 11, 2024Shocks and crises pose a real threat, but so does overreaction to them. And for every true crisis there are many false alarms. Understanding macroeconomic risk—the potential for negative or positive change, both cyclical and structural—is essential to responding to these threats with rational optimism.
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May 24, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This research was published on May 24, 2024Washington’s addiction to deficit spending — a rare bipartisan habit — is unlikely to change, no matter the electoral outcome in November. A deep conviction exists on both sides of the political divide that fiscal consolidation, whether achieved through less spending or higher taxes, reduces growth.
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May 6, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz |Martin Reeves
This research was published on May 6, 2024Less than a year ago, many pessimists rejected the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. They argued that U.S. resilience was a confluence of lucky factors, such as pandemic-era savings that would eventually run out. As inflation moderated and growth remained remarkably strong, they grudgingly had to accept that the economy is far more resilient than they had thought.
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Feb 12, 2024 | 
bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz
This researched was published on February 12, 2024Despite the gloomy expectations of recent years, global growth has held up relatively well. However, a succession of shocks–the pandemic, inflation, and the Ukraine war–has tested the resilience of the U.S., Europe, and China in disparate ways. Most significantly, the U.S., starting as a laggard in 2020, is the only bloc that is making a run at returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.
