Paul Swartz

1 month ago | bcghendersoninstitute.com | Paul Swartz |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Martin Reeves

This research was published on March 14, 2025Sinking consumer sentiment, wobbly financial markets, and a scattering of disappointing macroeconomic data are stoking fears of a U.S. recession. Even President Trump, saying he “hate(s) to predict things like that,” did not push back when recently asked by Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo whether he expects a recession this year.

Jan 15, 2025 | bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz

This researched was published on January 25, 2025With the inauguration just a few days away, the incoming administration will soon have to transition from campaign rhetoric to the substance of economic policymaking. Casting the economy as a “disaster” was electorally effective, yet no freshly elected president has entered office with a stronger economic backdrop in recent history. President-elect Donald Trump has ambition to reshape the economy and a strong mandate to roll out new policies.

Jan 15, 2025 | fortune.com | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz

BYPhilipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul SwartzPhilipp Carlsson-Szlezak is global chief economist and Paul Swartz is senior economist at Boston Consulting Group. They are authors of the 2024 book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.

Jan 15, 2025 | yahoo.com | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz

With the inauguration just a few days away, the incoming administration will soon have to transition from campaign rhetoric to the substance of economic policymaking. Casting the economy as a "disaster" was electorally effective, yet no freshly elected president has entered office with a stronger economic backdrop in recent history. President-elect Donald Trump has ambition to reshape the economy and a strong mandate to roll out new policies.

Dec 2, 2024 | bcghendersoninstitute.com | Matthew Jeffrey Vegari |Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak |Paul Swartz

Tariffs remain a cornerstone of President-elect Trump’s economic policy, as well as an all-purpose tool of geopolitical leverage (e.g. addressing illegal immigration) and for his domestic agenda (e.g. raising revenue for tax cuts). There is little clarity about protagonists, process, or priorities—and no certainty about policy. Yet executives and investors must grapple with the prospects for big swings in tariffs.