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Oct 21, 2024 | 
thetimes.com | Michael Keith |Tom Calver |Ryan Watts |Anthony Cappaert
Forecasting house prices is something of a national obsession — just not one that the British are very good at. When mortgage interest rates soared in autumn 2022, some economists on the doom-mongering side predicted house price Armageddon, while others were calmer. In recent months, mortgage rates have fallen (a host of lenders are now offering loans with rates below 4 per cent) and the market is looking more buoyant than it has at any point since the Liz Truss mini-budget of September 2022.
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May 1, 2024 | 
thetimes.co.uk | George Willoughby |Michael Keith
Elections are taking place across much of England on Thursday May 2. Voters will choose the mayors of ten combined authorities — including London, the West Midlands and Greater Manchester — as well as electing thousands of councillors spread across 107 local authorities. Labour are the favourites to win a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South after Scott Benton, a Conservative MP, resigned over a lobbying scandal.
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Apr 26, 2024 | 
thetimes.co.uk | George Willoughby |Michael Keith
Elections are taking place across much of England on Thursday May 2. Voters will choose the mayors of ten combined authorities — including London, the West Midlands and Greater Manchester — as well as electing thousands of councillors spread across 107 local authorities. Labour are the favourites to win a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South after Scott Benton, a Conservative MP, resigned over a lobbying scandal.
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Mar 15, 2024 | 
thetimes.co.uk | Tim Palmer |Michael Keith
Choosing where to live is one of the most important — and expensive — things you will do in your life. Luckily, the Sunday Times Best Places to Live guide, the annual definitive list in its 12th year, is here to help you, whatever your stage of life and wherever you are on the property ladder.
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Jan 25, 2024 | 
ft.com | Michael Keith
The writer is a professor at the Centre on Migration, Policy and Society at the University of Oxford Most of the global systems that...
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Dec 15, 2023 | 
thetimes.co.uk | Rachel Lavin |Michael Keith |Narottam Medhora
The world has a new curve to flatten. To prevent the worst possible climate disasters, carbon emissions must halve in the next seven years and be reduced almost completely to net zero by 2050 to keep global warming below 1.5C above the 1990s average, as per the Paris agreement. To achieve this, the 2020s will need to be a decade of significant societal change — a “green industrial revolution” — with 25-odd years to undo two centuries of fossil fuel dependency. But is each country doing enough?
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Dec 6, 2023 | 
thetimes.co.uk | Michael Keith |Tom Calver |Ryan Watts
Forecasting house prices is something of a national obsession — just not one that the British are very good at. When mortgage interest rates soared in autumn 2022, some economists on the doom-mongering side predicted house price Armageddon, while others were calmer. For its part, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted a peak-to-trough fall of 10 per cent, from the end of 2022 to 2024, which in November it revised down to just under 8 per cent.
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Sep 21, 2023 | 
towardsdatascience.com | Michael Keith
How to implement an advanced neural network model in several different time series contextsWhen I wrote Exploring the LSTM Neural Network Model for Time Series in January, 2022, my goal was to showcase how easily the advanced neural network could be implemented in Python using scalecast, a time series library I developed to facilitate my own work and projects.
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Sep 15, 2023 | 
thetimes.co.uk | Ben Clatworthy |Oliver Wright |Ryan Watts |Michael Keith
The huge disparity in what motorists pay for petrol a few miles apart has been laid bare after fuel stations published official figures for the first time. Drivers in some areas can save as much as £25 on a tank of fuel by travelling a couple of miles to a cheaper station. SponsoredIt is the first time that widespread price data has been made available to the public after an investigation by the competition watchdog.
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Apr 17, 2023 | 
towardsdatascience.com | Michael Keith
Apply and dynamically expand an interval using backtestingDepending on the purpose of generating a forecast, evaluating accurate confidence intervals can be a crucial task. Most classic econometric models, built upon assumptions about distributions of predictions and residuals, have a way to do this built in. When moving to machine learning to do time series, such as with XGBoost or recurrent neural networks, it can be more complicated.
