Mick Ryan

5 days ago | lowyinstitute.org | Mick Ryan

For some time now, Ukraine has been undertaking a long-range strike campaign against targets inside Russia. It has done this to degrade Russia’s war-making capacity by attacking factories and oil refineries. It is also to demonstrate to its supporters and aid providers that a Russian victory is not inevitable. And finally, the aim is to place political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a war termination agreement favourable to Ukraine.

6 days ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

Today, a brilliant operation was carried out — on enemy territory, targeting only military objectives, specifically the equipment used to strike Ukraine. Russia suffered significant losses — entirely justified and deserved. President Zelenskyy, 1 June 2025Over the course of the Ukraine war since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has slowly but surely evolved what might now be one of the most effective long-range strike systems in the world.

1 week ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

Ukraine is currently a proving ground for Russian aggression, but that ground can shift—to Moldova, to Latvia, to Finland, and beyond, into the Pacific, to China and Taiwan. If it does, we will need a tough- minded, clear- sighted way to respond. And to that end, we need a shared vision: a basis for thinking through our responses, well in advance of the moment when decisive action is required.

1 week ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

Apparently Ukraine and Russia will meet in Istanbul next Monday for another round of peace talks, but only if the Kremlin produces its promised memorandum of terms for an agreement. We should not hold high hopes for anything of substance to emerge from the meeting however. For Putin, this is just a smoke screen to allow him the opportunity to undertake another series of major military campaigns in Ukraine during the summer and autumn months.

1 week ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

If you want peace in Ukraine, pressure Russia. If you want war, don’t. The Trump people only make concessions. Which is exactly what the Kremlin expected. The US through its astounding weakness is making the war longer and bloodier than it has to be. @TimothyDSnyder, 21 May 2025Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five. To the 307 Ukrainian prisoners of war released this week and returned to their facilities - welcome home!In this week’s renamed edition of The Big Five, I focus on two key issues.