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  • 1 week ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

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  • 1 week ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

    Given Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, we must concede peace in Ukraine appears to be out of reach in the immediate future. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, 11 April 2025This past Friday saw three meetings that provided useful insights into the trajectory of negotiations into a peace deal for the war in Ukraine. The view that emerges from the convergence of these three activities is that the trajectory at present is not for a peace deal to be achieved any time soon.

  • 2 weeks ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

    Three years ago, our warriors liberated Bucha from the Russian occupiers. And the world saw what the Russian occupation truly is: people killed in the streets, people tortured, graves in the yards of ordinary houses. Since then, no one in the world can say they do not know what Ukraine is defending.President Zelenskyy, 1 April 2025. Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five.

  • 2 weeks ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

    At 8pm local time on the 2nd of April, the Peoples Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command announced the commencement of Exercise Strait Thunder 2025A. China admitted in this announcement that the exercise was a rehearsal for a blockade, and described it as "stern warning and forceful deterrence." This is the latest in an increasingly sophistocated series of large-scale joint exercises undertaken by the Eastern Theatre Command.

  • 3 weeks ago | mickryan.substack.com | Mick Ryan

    In May, the Australian public will go to the polls to elect a new federal government. Currently, the polls are tight, and no obvious winner has emerged. Despite the very perilous strategic circumstances Australia finds itself in, defence and security are not expected to be significant issues in the election campaign. That is a shame. Because Australia has never faced a more challenging environment in which to plan for its future security and prosperity.

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Mick Ryan, AM
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
22 Apr 25

RT @MassDara: To be clear: Russia does not have the military offensive capacity to occupy the rest of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson without larg…

Mick Ryan, AM
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
21 Apr 25

Thank you to Frank Hoffman and Joint Forces Quarterly for including my book, The War for Ukraine (@USNIBooks) , in a review essay in the latest edition of JFQ. I feel humbled to have it reviewed beside terrific books edited by Hal Brands, John Nagl and Katie Crombe. https://t.co/ic6RVpqz59

Mick Ryan, AM
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
21 Apr 25

An update on UGVs from @sambendett

Samuel Bendett
Samuel Bendett @sambendett

1/4 While the document below featured combat UGVs supplied by the MOD, many Russian mil bloggers note that the situation with kamikaze UGVs is far from desired: "Objectively, ground kamikazes have not yet shown themselves in any way. As colleagues rightly note, the UGV