Richard D Riley

Oct 28, 2024 | mentalhealth.bmj.com | Andrew Moriarty |Lewis W Paton |Lucinda Archer |Richard D Riley

MethodsThe methods align with PROGnosis RESearch Strategy recommendations,7 and the study is reported according to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis guidance.10 A patient advisory group (PAG) contributed to this study, including selecting predictors, definition of outcome, target patient population and clinical application. The study was registered prospectively (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04666662).

Jan 22, 2024 | bmj.com | Richard D Riley |Lucinda Archer |Joie Ensor |Ben Van Calster

In 2021, Gupta et al developed the ISARIC 4C deterioration model,23 a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among adults admitted to hospital with highly suspected or confirmed covid-19.

Dec 18, 2023 | bmj.com | Richard D Riley

Research Christmas 2023: Workforce Crisis BMJ 2023; 383 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-077143 Cite this as: BMJ 2023;383:e077143 Linked Editorial Festive period episodes of Doctor Who and population mortality Richard D Riley, professor of biostatistics Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK r.d.riley{at}bham.ac.uk (or @Richard_D_Riley on Twitter) Accepted 22 September 2023 Introduction On 23 November 1963,...

Jul 18, 2023 | onlinelibrary.wiley.com | Richard D Riley |Gary Collins

Abstract Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome. A developed model is a consequence of the development dataset and model-building strategy, including the sample size, number of predictors, and analysis method (e.g., regression or machine learning). We raise the concern that many models are developed using small datasets that lead to instability in the model and its predictions (estimated risks).