Thomas de Waal

England, London

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe and Writer at Freelance

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe. Scholar/writer on Caucasus, E. Europe, Russia. 2022-3 Fellow at IWM, Vienna. Translator of Osip Mandelstam.

Articles

Ashes of Our Fathers by Gabriel Gavin

1 month ago | the-tls.co.uk | Thomas de Waal

Welcome to the TLSWinner of the 2024 Niche Market Newspaper of the Year Award and proudly niche since 1902.
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward

1 month ago | carnegieendowment.org | Thomas de Waal

On March 13, in separate statements, Azerbaijan and Armenia said they had finally settled their differences on the text of an agreement to normalize relations for the first time after more than three decades of conflict. The announcement was described as “historic” by U.S Secretary of State Marco Rubio. European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas called it “a decisive step.” The second statement is a bit nearer the mark.
Moldova’s Gas Crisis Is Europe’s Headache

Jan 16, 2025 | carnegieendowment.org | Thomas de Waal

An energy crisis in Moldova is rapidly developing into a political crisis. It is likely to land at the EU’s door. Is anyone ready? The crisis has long been looming on the horizon as Ukraine had made it clear that from January 1 it would not renew the agreement for transit of Russian gas through its territory in order to deny Russia’s energy company Gazprom hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. Most EU countries, with the exception of Slovakia, had adapted to meet this scenario.
A once-banned novel of Ethiopia’s war against Eritrean independence

Jan 15, 2025 | the-tls.co.uk | Estelle Shirbon |Caroline Moorehead |Thomas de Waal |Heather White

In early 1982 Ethiopia’s socialist military regime, the Derg, launched an offensive against Eritrean insurgents fighting for independence in what was then a northern province of Ethiopia. The Red Star campaign, as it was called, involved months of all-out military assaults on the rebels’ stronghold at Nakfa, in Eritrea’s arid Sahel mountains, and a propaganda blitz glorifying Ethiopia’s socialist revolution and vilifying the insurgents as imperialist stooges.
An Azerbaijani author of fierce political courage and local loyalty

Jan 15, 2025 | the-tls.co.uk | Thomas de Waal |Estelle Shirbon |Caroline Moorehead |Heather White

People and Trees is a pastoral set in Soviet Azerbaijan in the 1940s. If that sounds dull, then do not be deceived: Akram Aylisli’s novel is anything but. Aylisli, who recently turned eighty-seven, is best known for Stone Dreams (2012; 2022 in English), a novel that challenged his country’s ethno-nationalist orthodoxy concerning its conflict with Armenia.
Will Georgia's geopolitical hedging pay off?

Nov 20, 2024 | engelsbergideas.com | Thomas de Waal

The political crisis in Georgia, caused by a disputed election, carries on, overshadowed by events in the United States and Ukraine. But everything is connected: what is going on in Georgia has its own local dynamics, but is also part of a bigger global trend. In Georgia, electoral malpractice by the Georgian Dream ruling party and a retreat from democracy meets geopolitical hedging and experimentation with a new illiberal European model.
Georgia’s Dangerous Moment Is a Challenge for the EU

Nov 1, 2024 | europeanbusinessreview.eu | N. Peter Kramer |Thomas de Waal

by Thomas de Waal Just because you could see it coming, it does not make the situation any better. Georgian Dream, Georgia’s tired, angry, and increasingly authoritarian ruling party, claimed victory in the country’s October 26 parliamentary election. Officially, the party won 54 percent of the vote and can therefore govern for another four-year term. It is clear, however, that to a greater or lesser degree, the election was stolen.
Odesa’s cosmopolitan history is under threat

Oct 25, 2024 | prospectmagazine.co.uk | Thomas de Waal

One of the brighter stories in Ukraine’s horrific war has been the resistance of the city of Odesa. Ukraine’s main port on the Black Sea and great centre of culture has been repeatedly bombed and hit by Russian drones. It has suffered many casualties; some of its finest buildings have been badly damaged. But Odesa (it was known for two centuries as Odessa but now mostly goes by the Ukrainian spelling with one s) has dug in.
Europe Inside Out

Oct 23, 2024 | carnegieendowment.org | Thomas de Waal |Natalie Sabanadze |Stefan Lehne |Rosa Balfour

Can the West Help Revive Global Democracy? Richard Youngs and Thomas Carothers discuss the future of the global democratic agenda and take stock of what Brussels and Washington can do to support it. Can Europe Resist the Radical Right? Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne discuss why the radical right is on the rise in Europe, how this trend might impact EU policies, and what can be done to contain it.
Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Fragile Peace Process

Sep 19, 2024 | carnegieendowment.org | Thomas de Waal

One year after Azerbaijan captured the long-disputed province of Nagorny Karabakh, forcing the expulsion of the entire Armenian population, Baku still holds almost all the cards in its dealings with Yerevan. It has done so since the war of 2020. The long and tragic story of Karabakh leaves many open wounds. Azerbaijan was the clear aggressor in 2023, but over the long duration of the conflict, its military operation was the last round of a cycle of ethnic cleansing committed by both sides.