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Who Is Voting For Reform Prosecutors?

Jan 7, 2025 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas |Ethan Brown

Reform prosecutors entered the 2024 election year with significant headwinds: in recent years, they were recalled (Chesa Boudin in San Francisco), defeated (Marilyn Mosby in Baltimore City), and blowback to racial justice has mounted since the George Floyd summer nearly five years ago. But because prosecutors are elected at the county or circuit level, the politics of their elections are highly local.
Are GOP-Leaning Pollsters Biasing The Averages? (No.) – Split Ticket

Oct 29, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Lakshya Jain |Ethan Chen

One question we keep getting is whether Republican-leaning polls are biasing our poll averages. The criticism goes as such: since the averages are only as good as the data that goes into it, a flood of polls from GOP-leaning pollsters would meaningfully bias the polling outlook rightward. This is what many call “flooding the zone”.…
Would Voter Turnout Be Enough To Flip Texas Blue?

Sep 26, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

For 30 years, Texas Democrats have eagerly forecasted an eventual Democratic takeover of Texas, pinning their hopes on rapidly growing minority populations that traditionally lean blue. However, following three decades of statewide losses, observers may be excused for being skeptical of a “Blexas” future — despite the state becoming majority-minority, and despite it having shifted left a considerable amount since the Bush era, the GOP still wins it by a healthy (if weakened) margin.
Media Markets and Gerrymandering

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

Gerrymandering is one of the most thrown-around words in political discourse. It is applied to every possible concept, regardless of its actual relevance to the topic at hand. Very broadly though, all concepts of the term involve the notion that the playing field is tilted to entrench an advantage for one side, most often with respect to partisan advantage. An underrated aspect of gerrymandering is the interaction of political geography and media markets.
Colorado Front Range Roundup

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

A lot has happened in Colorado politics since our last update – notably the retirement of 7th District Rep. Ed Perlmutter. This article will spell out the latest updates and offer some insights as to what the fall may bring, specifically in Congressional Districts 7 and 8. District 7 – Broomfield to Bishop CastleEd Perlmutter’s decision to retire sent shockwaves through the political world.
Henry Cuellar: The Last Politiquero

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas |Leon Sit

IntroductionSouth Texas’s sharp shift in 2020 to the Republican Party surprised many. This region is dominated by working-class Latinos, many of whom are Catholic, forming an overlap of the Texas Democratic Party’s historically strongest demographics. Even in Republican landslides such as Senator John Cornyn’s 2014 rout of David Alameel, South Texas stuck with the Democrats.
The GOP Civil War Comes to Colorado

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

On January 5, Colorado State Sen. Don Coram (R-Montrose) announced he would mount a primary challenge to incumbent U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt). A deal-making Republican with a bipartisan temperament, he has garnered respect from numerous Democrats, Republicans, and independents clued into Colorado politics. Considering Boebert’s polarizing status inside and outside of the Centennial state, many are wondering whether she can be defeated.
Empire State Shocker

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a heavily blue state, is not normally on the radar for competitive elections. The last single-digit statewide race was the 2010 Comptroller election, when Republican Harry Wilson came within 5% of victory.
New Mexico, Land of Enchanting Politics

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

The politics of New Mexico reflect its position at the crossroads of multiple cultures, polities, and societies. Today, Split Ticket dives into past and present political developments in New Mexico to help deconstruct and analyze the state’s politics as we head into another election season. The full report is available here – below is an abridged summary of our findings. In short – there are three major racial groups in the state: whites, Latinos, and Native Americans.
Revisiting Q Scores

Sep 23, 2024 | split-ticket.org | Armin Thomas

A while back, Split Ticket introduced a new metric to quantify the relative conservatism of a political region, as defined by educational, racial, and political statistics. This was dubbed the Q-score, and it had the highest magnitude among populist white working-class areas that used to be swingy or Democratic, such as southern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and north-central Alabama, as well as traditional Republican bastions such as western Ohio.