Aron Lund

1 month ago | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Haley Bobseine

Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked, if not dependent, on American security institutions, markets, and banks. Yet it also has strong historical, cultural, economic, and security ties—not to mention a 1,000-mile border—with Iran, which Trump is again poised to treat as an enemy.

1 month ago | tcf.org | Sam Heller |Nicholas Danforth |Aron Lund |Veena Ali-Khan

American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or increasing enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. Either way, the results will almost certainly be bad. But even in this grim moment, there are small opportunities.

2 months ago | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Aron Lund |Emily McGrath |Michele Evermore

As President Trump threatens to slap steep tariffs on many countries, he is boasting that his taxes on imports will be a boon to the U.S. economy, but most economists strongly disagree—many say Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation, slow economic growth, hurt U.S. workers and result in American consumers footing the bill for his tariffs.

2 months ago | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller

After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.

Jan 13, 2025 | tcf.org | Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Peter Salisbury |Sam Heller

The progressive foreign policy agenda is in a dark place. Trump has successfully challenged the international system from the right and frustrated the progressive formulations against endless war. He has changed global dynamics and America’s domestic politics for the worse in ways that will echo long after his second term ends. If nothing else, this troubling moment offers an opportunity for clarity. Progressives have two main challenges to face.