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3 weeks ago | 
tcf.org | Veena Ali-Khan |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller
The demography of both Lebanon and Syria is in flux, after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Thousands of people are now on the move, inside the two countries and across their shared border—in both directions. Since Syrian rebels toppled the Assad government on December 8, hundreds of thousands of people have crossed the Syrian–Lebanese border—both Syrian refugees in Lebanon returning home, and Syrians and Lebanese escaping the new Syria.
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller |Sajad Jiyad
The events of the last year have upended many assumptions about the Axis of Resistance, the loosely defined network of Iran and its core partners. For as long as the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to export revolution and project power in the Arab Middle East, surprisingly persistent debates have raged over core questions. Did Iran tightly command a network of proxies and dependents—or did it stand at the center of a loose network of like-minded groups and opportunistic fellow travelers?
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Aron Lund |Sam Heller |Nicholas Danforth |Sajad Jiyad
The new masters of Sayida Zaynab, a famous Shia shrine in the countryside outside Damascus, strode with confidence across the nearly empty marble courtyard, ignoring audible grumbles from the few remaining pilgrims and staffers. Abu Omar, the shrine’s new head of security, wears his beard long and ragged, in a style often associated with purist Sunnis.
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Sam Heller |Thanassis Cambanis |Haley Bobseine
Century International: On Thursday, March 6, Syria’s new rulers began a military crackdown on what they described as a nascent insurgency by supporters of the deposed Assad regime in the coastal region. In the violence that ensued, hundreds of civilians were killed, in addition to large numbers of both pro- and anti-government combatants. Credible evidence implicates regime militias in sectarian massacres of Alawite Syrians. How widespread is sectarian violence? Is it ongoing?
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Sam Heller |Nicholas Danforth |Aron Lund |Veena Ali-Khan
American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or increasing enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. Either way, the results will almost certainly be bad. But even in this grim moment, there are small opportunities.
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2 months ago | 
tcf.org | Muhannad Ayyash |Sam Heller |Peter Salisbury |Thanassis Cambanis
The dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad has fallen. Now, many of the 6.2 million Syrian refugees abroad—more than a quarter of the country’s prewar population—are thinking, finally, about going home. Whether in muddy refugee camps, crowded working-class neighborhoods in Istanbul, Beirut, and Amman, or distant European cities, they have been following the dramatic news out of Damascus and entertaining the idea, perhaps for the first time, that their children will know Syria.
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2 months ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
tcf.org | Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Peter Salisbury |Sam Heller
The progressive foreign policy agenda is in a dark place. Trump has successfully challenged the international system from the right and frustrated the progressive formulations against endless war. He has changed global dynamics and America’s domestic politics for the worse in ways that will echo long after his second term ends. If nothing else, this troubling moment offers an opportunity for clarity. Progressives have two main challenges to face.
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Dec 16, 2024 | 
foreignaffairs.com | Sam Heller
Until Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, on December 8, few countries actually wanted the Syrian dictator’s government to fall. This was not because foreign governments liked Assad or approved of the brutal way in which he reigned over Syria. Rather, they were afraid of what might replace him: rule by extremist militants, sectarian bloodletting, and chaos that could engulf not just Syria but much of the Middle East.
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Oct 28, 2024 | 
tcf.org | Sam Heller |Thanassis Cambanis |Sajad Jiyad |Dalia Hatuqa
When Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to restore diplomatic relations in March 2023, the rapprochement seemed fragile. The two regional powers set modest public expectations for the pact, with supporters hoping it would, at the very least, help contain violence in Arab countries where both states play a role, and prevent new wars from emerging.
